Legends Never Die

A Quickie...

2009-04-06T23:36:00.001-07:00

I'm running on 10 hours of sleep in the last 72 hours, so I'm going to make this quick.

-I was at the YMCA today and witnessed a guy doing barbell curls in the squat rack. If that wasn't bad enough, he was standing on a stability board while doing them. I almost died right there.

-I saw a young lady riding her horse down the street today. Is that legal? If so, why don't more people ride horses? How would you park a horse if you went shopping? Tie it to a post? Do you have to clean up after your horse if it poops like you would for a dog? If anyone could provide me with answers to these questions that would be terrific.

-Go Mariners.

That's it. Time for bed. Stay tuned for the 2009 Hoops & Suey Reunion Tour recap once I figure out this video editing stuff and get caught up on sleep/work. Until then, please enjoy this picture of Hoops from the Peninsula Pub Crawl.

-dunkie

The 2009 Hoops & Suey Reunion Tour: Itinerary

2009-03-24T13:03:00.000-07:00

Participants: Hoops, Suey and Friends.
Locations: Seattle to SoCal.
Dates: March 26 - April 6.

*Schedule is subject to change due to extreme fatigue, hangovers, hunger, hot babes, Hoops going missing, and fun/exciting events that we haven't yet figured out.

View Larger Map

-dunkie

The Scientifc Method

2009-03-17T13:22:00.000-07:00

Question:
Do I suck at running?

Observations:
After running long distances, I find myself injured.

Hypothesis:
I suck at running.

Experiment:
-Run 23.5 miles
-Run 9.3 miles

Data:
-Stress fracture in right foot.
-Sprained left ankle.

Conclusion:
I suck at running.

Future Tests:
None. No more running long distances.

-dunkie

DILLIGAF?

2009-03-17T10:25:00.000-07:00

No fluff today. Let's get straight to the point.

What we know...

-The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 authorized the spending of $700 billion dollars.

-The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 authorized the spending of $780 billion dollars.

-AIG has received $170 billion dollars in taxpayer funds.

-AIG is set to receive another $30 billion dollars.

-AIG is paying out $165 million dollars in bonuses.

To put things into perspective...

-$200 billion dollars (the amount going to AIG) is 13.5% of the total $1.48 trillion dollars that the US Government is shelling out.

-Of that $200 billion dollars going to AIG, .08% or $165 million is being paid out in bonuses. That's roughly 1/12th of ONE percent.

-Looking at the bigger picture, $165 million is .01% (1/100th of ONE percent) of the $1.48 trillion dollars being spent.

My thoughts...

-People that are shitting their pants over the AIG bonuses that are being paid out would be much better off if they spent their time asking where the other 99.99% (or 99.92% depending on which example you want to look at) of the money is going.

- What does one TRILLION dollars look like?

-For the vast majority of us, $165 million is a lot more then we will earn or see in a lifetime. If our gripe is over the fact that someone else is getting paid more then us for doing a crappy job, then that is on thing. But for the people who are getting riled up because of the amount? Seriously people, in the large scheme of things, we are taking about pennies here.

-Politicians will be happy to take up this banner and run with it, as it will redirect any criticism from the spending that they support. Take a look at :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act_of_2009

Tell me that once you dig down into those that you aren't going to find numerous "pennies" being thrown around. Why aren't we concerned about those too?

-To use a scaled down example, this is basically what people are shitting their pants over:

After a long week, you decide to do something fun and throw a party. Being the good party host that you are, you decide to spend $148 dollars on booze. Since you have a lot of other things to take care of, you give your friend $17 dollars and ask him to go pick up an 18 pack of Budweiser bottles with it. Being the good friend that he is, he goes to the store for you and returns shortly after with the 18 pack and receipt in hand. Looking at the receipt you see that the total is for $16.99.

What do you do next?

a) Poop your pants because because your friend pocketed the extra penny.
b) Demand that your friend return the penny and spend the next month trying to get that penny back.
c) Ask your friend to go get some red cups for the party, but tell him that you want your penny back before you give him another $3 dollars to go buy the cups. Also, you tell him that if the total comes to $2.99, that he better not try to pocket your penny again.
c) Nothing. You don't give a damn. It's only a penny. In fact, you probably wouldn't even have cared if he came back with a 17 pack of Bud Light instead.

-Obviously, when it comes to money, scale does make a significant difference. Wasting a penny isn't the same as wasting $165 million dollars, even if that $165 million dollars is contractually owed to the people receiving it.

However, when it comes to time and energy, do I really care about the $165 million dollars in bonuses that AIG is paying out? No. I don't. Which begs to ask the question why I am writing this post? Back to work...

-dunkie

I'm Back... Sort of.

2009-03-03T10:06:00.001-08:00

I'd like to appologize for the lack of posts lately, as I have been off enjoying my second honeymoon with Junior.

Anyways, a few quick updates...

-I bought some new shoes to CrossFit in. Exciting hu? They are the Nike Zoom TRE AD's and actually, they are from Nike's skateboardig line-up of shoes. Why these shoes?

Most workout/running/cross training shoes these days have large, cushioned heals which are ment to absorb shock and lessen the wear and tear on your joints. This is terrific if you are going to be running long distances, but not so great if you are doing things that involve maximizing the force you exert against the ground. In short, the cushioned heals absorb the force, which limits your ability to perform certain things at a maximum level.

Also, a raised heal changes your center of gravity, which causes you to rely more on your quadricps, and less on your hamstrings are glutes. Again, this can be good for things like jogging, but bad for balance, delivering force, and many power/olympic lifting exercises.

Lastly, with many running shoes (and to some degree, even these shoes) the soles are shaped in a way that facilitates a natural roll/rocking motion from heal to toe. This makes it harder to stay on your heals in movments that involve driving through your heals for power.

So why skateboarding shoes? If you think about skateboarding, it is very dependent on manipulating the board through very percise amounts of pressure and force, thus it elimintates any of the things mentioned above.

Oh, and they are themed like the Marty McFly Hyperdunks, which makes them pretty sweet.

-The DJIA is trading below 6,800 right now. On the bright side, Seattle sports have been on an upswing over these last few months!

-The nameless band has taken on the name GALAXY FARM. You can check out some of their songs at http://www.myspace.com/galaxyfarm.

-No speeding tickets lately, which is probably due in part to the fact that I am actually following the speed limit these days. Still, just to be safe, I think I am going to pick up a radar detector since spring is just around the corner (knock on wood). Safety first!

-Despite having somewhat of an odd shaped head, I think I'm going to go back to the shaved noggin circa 2006. I figure between the two showers I take every day and the cost of haircuts/hair care products, I'll be able to save the equivalent of 8 hours a month. That's an extra day off every month! In all seriousness, having a shaved head just makes life easier, just ask Britney.

Wow. What a worthwhile and amazing update. I'm sure you will agree and are extremely excited for my next, worthwhile and amazing update. Stay tuned.

-dunkie

!!!

2009-02-12T09:56:00.000-08:00

-dunkie

A Whole lot of Nothing.

2009-02-10T14:19:00.000-08:00

As the saying goes, “no news, is good news.” Sadly, this doesn’t really apply to what happened today in the United States. Instead of receiving no news, what we got was a whole lot of news that really didn’t tell us much. What do I mean by that?

First, we received news that the Senate voted and approved an $838 billion economic stimulus package. Yippy skippy. The only problem is that the Senate approved stimulus plan is different from the House approved stimulus plan. Because of this, we still don’t know what the bill will look like once President Obama signs it into law. In other words, nothing has changed on this front, yet…

Secondly, Treasury Secretary Geithner came out today and announced the “details” of a $2 trillion dollar rescue plan. While he outlined the plan, he neglected to provide the details of how things would really work. The result of this was somewhat reminiscent of when we first heard about The Bailout (i.e. very few details at first) and the markets did not react favorably.

So despite all of this news, we are pretty much left with knowing as much as we did a week ago. As a result, the stock markets are pretty much back to where they were, a week ago (i.e. the DJIA was down 381.99 points and closed at 7,888.88).

Really, the only point of today’s news(and this post for that matter) is to report that eventually, we are going to hear something, at which point I’ll hopefully write something about the US Economy again.

-dunkie

An A-Rod Montage with Music by Chris Daughtry

2009-02-09T15:18:00.000-08:00

Just dug this one out of the wood works. It's an A-Rod Montage that I put together for Sherman a year or so ago. Figured that I might as well put it up. Kind of brings a tear to my eye when I watch it...

p.s. 25,000 hits? lol

-dunkie

Forgive A-Rod, but the rest is up to uou

2009-02-07T10:58:00.000-08:00

"When I arrived in Texas in 2001, I felt an enormous amount of pressure, felt all the weight of the world on top of me to perform, and perform at a high level every day. Back then, [baseball] was a different culture. It was very loose. I was young, I was stupid, I was naïve. I wanted to prove to everyone that I was worth being one of the greatest players of all time. I did take a banned substance. For that, I am very sorry and deeply regretful." -Alex Rodriguez

The guy screwed up. And make no mistake about it, as far as screw ups and bad decisions go, taking steroids is a pretty big one.

Let's be honest though. We all make mistakes, we all screw up, we all make bad decisions, and in the end, we all must deal with the consequences of our actions. In this manor, A-rod is no different then anyone else. He made a mistake and he will have to deal with the consequences.

Note: If you don't ever make mistakes, or screw up, you either a) aren't being honest with yourself or b) perfect, in which case (a) also applies.

What sets A-Rod apart, along with the few others who choose to do so, is that he admitted to his mistakes (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, as well all the other 103 players who tested positive for illegal substances back in 2003, you might want to start taking notes...). Now that A-Rod he has done so, we all have a choice, and it is an individual choice that we are all free to make.

For myself, that choice is to forgive A-Rod.

Yes, I realize that he made a mistake, one that will no doubt hurt the national pastime that I love. However, I applaud and respect the courage that it took for him to come out and tell the truth, especially when taking into consideration the possible consequences of doing so. In realizing such, I support him in moving forward in his career and hope that he will work hard to regain the trust of not only his fans, but of Major League Baseball fans too. In doing so, I hope that one day he will earn the right to be enshrined in the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame.

Don't get me wrong though, I do not support the use of steroids, and just because you say that you're sorry doesn't automatically earn you a get out of jail free card. Furthermore, if you think A-Rod should be banned from Major League Baseball and the HOF, you are probably justified in your thoughts, and whether or not he will actually ever make it there, I really just don't know.

What I do know is that I've made plenty of mistakes in my life, and if it wasn't for the forgiveness or support of others, I probably wouldn't be who, or where I am today. With that in mind, I would hope that we could all find it in our hearts to forgive A-Rod. Beyond that, whether you choose to support him or push for his banishment, is completely up to you.

-dunkie

Bodyweight Exercises

2009-01-31T13:43:00.001-08:00

Seriously...?

Who thinks of something like this? And who the hell goes along with the idea for that matter?

Now Hiring: Human Weights!

I really hope this isn't serious.... even if it is absolutely hilarious.

-dunkie

Ninja Warrior!

2009-01-28T16:22:00.000-08:00

Haha found the video that I was looking to post a while back...

-dunkie

A Conundrum of Sorts...

2009-01-27T12:56:00.000-08:00

Co-nun-drum (n): a) a question or problem having only a conjectural answer b) an intricate or difficult problem.

First of all, I’m no biology major. Realizing that, I am going to stay away from scientific terms, partly because they confuse me. What I know, or think I know is based on what I have read, heard, or experienced. Even then, I’m not sure if what I know is correct or if it fits together on the scientific level. Confused yet? Me too, and I haven’t even gotten to what this is all about.

Where do I begin?

Moving heavy weight is hard. When I use the word heavy, I am speaking relative to whoever is lifting it. What looks heavy to me can be chump change to others. Anyways… when we are moving heavy weight there is only so much we can do until we reach failure and drop the weight on our face. At this point our muscles have been taxed to the limit and we need to rest them before they can do more.

In short, when moving heavy weight, the major limiting factor at play is strength.

Next…

Moving a low amount of weight (again, relative to whoever is moving it) at a fast pace is also hard. There is only so much we can do before we fall over in pain and/or exhaustion and start to cry. At this point, we usually stop or slow down until the pain subsides and we can do more.

To summarize, when moving low amounts of weight at a fast pace, the major limiting factor that comes into play is endurance.

Still with me?

This is where the conundrum begins.

If we are training to lift heavy weight the answer is relatively clear. Train for strength.

If we are training to run long distances, a similar approach applies. Train for endurance.

But what happens when we want to move medium/heavy weights at a quick/fast pace, or even low amounts of weight at an extremely fast pace? And if that is our goal, how do we train for it?

With these types of goals in mind, there are not one, but two limiting factors that come into play. These are strength and endurance.

An Example:

Let’s take two athletes and assign them numerical values for their levels of strength and endurance (10 being high, 1 being low):

Note: All other levels of fitness (Power, speed, agility, ect…) are the same for each athlete.

Athlete A has a numerical strength value of 8, and an endurance value of 6.

Athlete B has a numerical strength value of 8 and an endurance level of 10.

If we put both athletes on a bench and asked them to go for a one rep max bench press, their weights would be almost identical. However, if we scaled the weight back to 60% of their one rep max and asked them to go for max repetitions, Athlete B would be able to perform far more repetitions then Athlete A.

Why is this?

In a one rep max, both athletes have a high enough endurance level that it just doesn’t come into play. In other words, they don’t come close to reaching their endurance threshold.

At 60% max weight for max reps, Athlete A reaches his endurance threshold before he comes to his strength threshold, and is forced to stop. Athlete B however, is able to continue on and perform reps until he reaches his strength threshold.

Another example:

Same two athletes:

Athlete A has a numerical strength value of 8, and an endurance value of 6.

Athlete B has a numerical strength value of 8 and an endurance level of 10.

This time they are running a single 40m dash.

Since all other areas of fitness are the same, both athletes run the 40m in the same time. The reason being is that at such a short distance, endurance doesn’t come into play. Both athletes come nowhere near their threshold.

If however, Athlete A had an endurance level of 2 or 3, he may reach this threshold in this short of distance and he would lose the race.

Now, let’s move out the distance and make it a 400m run. Assuming they are going all out from the start, both Athletes will be tied for the first leg of the race. At some point, Athlete A will start to hit his endurance threshold and Athlete B will take the lead. Later on in the race, they might both hit their strength threshold, but this will be a moot point as Athlete B will already be ahead.

Of note, if Athlete B had a slightly lower level strength/power/speed then Athlete A ,this might even itself out by the end, with Athlete A taking an early lead and Athlete B coming back at the end.

Enough with the examples…

In short, the conundrum is that training across multiple fitness domains is a difficult task. If you are training for a specific movement, or event, this is made a little easier.

For example (I lied)

If you are running the 100m it is optimal to maintain a point where your strength and endurance levels max out at the same time. If you have 100 hours to train and you devote 99 of them to training strength, you are probably going to die after 25m. Similarly, if you train 1 hour to strength and 99 to endurance, you might be able to run 100m without breaking a sweat, but you won’t be breaking any world records. For this event, training 60 hours to strength/power, and 40 hours to endurance might be optimal.

That example is pretty specific. But what if you are training for the 1600m also? The optimal training breakdown for that event might be 20 strength/power and 80 to endurance, which is by no means optimal for your 100m efforts.

The optimal solution would be to train 40 hours to strength/power and 60 hours to endurance. Sadly, this probably wouldn’t lead to any personal bests in either event.

For most sports, such as football, soccer, baseball, or even CrossFit, you don’t have the leisure to pinpoint a single optimal breakdown. When one play in football might require you to stop a 230 pound freight train from head on, another might require you to chase down a 175 pound gazelle. In this case, the best for one, screws you for the other.

The way I see it, which isn’t all that clear, is that the only way to find that optimal training point would be to take the optimal split between every possible activity, assign it a value for how often it might occur relative to other scenarios, and then come up with an optimal training split. If you are a super nerd, then you might even find a way to factor in at what levels an activity would switch from “success” to “failure.” This, obviously, is more than I care to tackle.

Thus we find ourselves at our conjectural answer to the conundrum at hand…

Con-jec-ture (n): a proposition (as in mathematics) before it has been proved or disproved.

Answer:

Fudge it. Pick an optimal split that you think is right and train for it. At the same time, test yourself in whatever you are doing to see if you are improving and what is holding you back from improving more. If you continually find yourself reaching a strength threshold before an endurance threshold, then train strength. If the opposite is true, well then do the opposite.

Reasons this Answer sucks:

Training multiple fitness domains at once is almost never optimal to achieving a high level in one single domain. In fact, excelling in one specific fitness domain will often result in going backwards in another. As a result, going forward in two domains is slower.

Some would make a case that given a set period of time; you should specialize in training one, and then switch to the other, rather than do both at once.

For most, this isn’t an option given the short periods of training times between major events or when sport seasons take place. For Olympic athletes who have longer periods of time between events, specializing might work better, or it might not.

In Closing:

I think I started this post wanting to talk about lactic acid thresholds, but got a little sidetracked. Oh well. Maybe I’ll ramble on about that next time.

-dunkie

5 Days in Portland

2009-01-26T13:55:00.000-08:00

Since I was already heading down to Portland for the show last Wednesday, I thought that I might as well take Thursday and Friday off and make a much needed mini vacation out of the whole trip. The following is a recap of the highs, lows (sadly), and random observations from my 5 day excursion to Portland.

-Saw Nate Moceri for the first time since 7th grade, who is currently living with B-unit. It was great catching up with him and recalling how cool we were back in the day. For the record, if you didn't get a CCS Magazine in the mail every month or didn't own a pair of Vans, you weren't cool.

Note: B-unit still owns a pair of Vans and has a new CCS Magazine sitting on his desk.

-Received was easily the best service by a waiter while down in Portland at a place called The Fat City Cafe. I came inside from being on the phone about 1 minute behind A-Mac and he already had a cup of coffee sitting in front of him. Within seconds of sitting down (keep in mind, the place was pretty busy and he was the only waiter), the waiter had come by again asking me if I would like anything to drink. Orange juice and coffee please.

In no more than a minute, I too had a cup of coffee and a glass of OJ sitting in front of me. Fantastic. And it didn't end there. Our food was brought in a timely fashion and during that time I never once reached empty on my cup of coffee. Talk about being Johnny on the spot. Lastly, we had ordered some lunch for a friend to-go and it was brought out to us in a box right as we finished our food. Quite frankly, I don't think I've ever had a waiter that was even in the same ballpark as this guy.

-Another Fat City related note... Ordering a cinnamon roll, a side of hash browns, a blueberry waffle, a biscuit and a farmer's sizzle (hash browns, eggs, veggies, mixed together with gravy on top) is entirely to much food to eat in one sitting. I am still regretting this.

-Worked out at the 24 Hour Fitness with B-unit on Thursday. Went over some form stuff with deadlift, cleans, and squats. It's always great having someone knowledgeable on hand to critique what you are doing (or not doing). After that he had to work with some of his client's so I went along and did a CrossFit workout to finish up the day.

21-15-9 rep of
Thrusters - 95 lbs
Burpees - w/ OH clap

Time: 7:47

Was planning on doing "Fran" but wasn't able to locate a pull-up bar near the barbells. This ended up being much worse as your legs don't get a rest. Following my WOD, a guy came up to me and asked where I CF'ed at. Apparently he owns a CF gym in Seattle and doing thrusters and burpees makes you stick out like a sore thumb.

-Random quote from someone else who saw me doing my workout:

You have very nice thruster.

Umm... thank you? I think.

-Cat & Bird seemed to enjoy this video immensely (especially the balloon part):

I'm pretty sure all 13,000 views are from them watching it.

-Nate's birthday was on Friday so we took him out to a place called The Good Foot over on the east side of Portland at the advice of B-unit (who had to depart for San Diego earlier that day). Apparently, Fridays are Funk/B Boy night and it ended up being pretty awesome. Some of the B Boyz were pretty impressive and the music was fun to dance to.

Needless to say, we got Nate smashed. On the way home (I was the DD for the night) the five of us rocked out to some Daft Punk in the car, followed by another five dude dance session to Daft Punk once we got home. While that was probably my first (and hopefully last) all dude dance party, it was pretty much the highlight of the entire night.

-Learned that one of CWA's founders passed away last week at the age of 89. Always a sad day when news like that comes along. His love and postive influence well be felt at CWA for generations to come. RIP Sam.

-I'm glad my nickname isn't poo pile.

-Found out that my drivers license expired a few weeks ago. Whoops. Didn't have any problems with it until we tried to get into a bar downtown on Saturday. Luckily, the back door was open. Thanks Poo. I think that is the first time that I've ever snuck into a bar.

-We started out on the east side Saturday night and met up with Cat's roommate there who works for a large athletic apparel company that isn't named Nike and starts with an A. They were having a going away party for one of her bosses and so the place was packed with employees. Around 10:30 we decided to finish our drinks and meet up with some friends in the downtown area.

At that point I sent a text to my friend Fitz to see where he was, and recieved a reply that there was a shooting and that SWAT and the police were swarming the place, but we should still come down to the bar he was at.

We later learned that a gunman had opened up fire outside of one of the bars there and had injured 7 and killed two. Damn...

http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2009/01/portland_police_respond_to_dow.html

Note: learning this was easily the lowlight of the trip.

-While walking to one of the downtown bars we passed a guy playing a guitar on the street. It wasn't until I was a few steps passed him that I recognized that he as playing "Wagon Wheel" by OCMS. I quickly turned around and emptied my pockets into his donation hat. Randomly hearing one of your favorite (and somewhat obscure) songs while drunkely making your way down a city sidewalk late at night? Worth every dollar.

-When you know you will be sleeping on couches and floors for 4 nights in a row, always, always, ALWAYS, bring your foam roller along with you. I didn't and my back hate me for it.

-Lazzeri meat balls are nothing to rave about. The verdict is still out on Paccione and Moceri.

-Also on that food related note, Fitz and Drew opened up my eyes on the cooking possibilites for the Paleo diet. Stay tuned for the results of my first Roast.

-Flooding a second story house is not fun (don't worry Adam, we didn't flood again). Even worse is when it starts leak out of the ceiling below. For the record, this was totally the result of a failed attempt by a landlord to fix this matter and the involved tennants should not be blamed.

If you tell your landlord that your toilets aren't flushing correctly and they send someone by that takes one look at the toilet and tells you "that is how toilets are supposed to work," and then your toilet floods the next day, that is their bad, not yours.

-Made it down to Portland in 2 hours flat and back in 2:10 without having to re-fill my tank. I think I am just going to start makin weekend shopping excursions down there for food and whatever else I need. I'm pretty sure my tax savings could pay for my gas bill at the current gas prices.

In conclusion, Portland is a pretty great place and I'm looking forward to my next visit down there. Maybe next time I'll try filling up my gas tank while I'm there. What happenes if you try to fill up yourself? I guess I'll just have to find out...

-dunkie

A Portland Debut

2009-01-25T20:55:00.000-08:00

After months of anticipation and a postponement due to inclement weather conditions in December, the time had finally arrived to witness the Ben & Jon's first concert. A-Mac and I met up Wednesday afternoon and caravanned down to Portland for the show that night.

The show was held at a small venue in Multnomah Village called O'Connors. After helping the band set up and doing some sound checks, A-Mac and I settled in to keep an eye on the equipment as the band made a quick trip home to do some last minute things before the show.

Side note: My attempt to stay on the Paleo diet died here. It's doom came at the hands of two orders of hush puppies, two orders of wings, a hummus plate, and a tasty micro brew. While I fully intend to pick the diet back up now that I have returned home, the rest of the week was filled with even more horrible non-paleo foods that my body hates me for right now.

Around 8:00 the band had returned and had gone about mingling with the growing crowd of friends that had come by to see the show. By 8:30 the place was nearing maximum occupancy and the band had moved to the stage.

The set started with a song called "Mixer," which I recognized from one of the band's practice sessions. I can't recall all of the song names but it was one of my favorites along with "Bonnie and Clyde" that followed shortly after.

About half way into the show, the inevitable question was thrown out from somewhere in the crowd

"What's the name of your band!?"

In the hours leading up to the show, the guys were still going back and forth between some of the possible names and hadn't been able to nail one down. Previously, they had settled on "Brother Brother," but no one seemed quite content with that. This was mostly because there are three of them (with their new drummer Chris) and that name only really worked for two.

After taking a few suggestions from the crowd and opting to remain undecided on the matter for the time being, they continued on with a few more songs before moving into two cover songs. One of these was "Starlight" by Muse and it was done exceptionally well.

The second to last song of the night was called "Wonderful" and was most definitely my favorite. This was another one of their songs that I heard them practice a few months ago when it was a work in progress at the time. It was great hearing how it came out.

As an encore, Ben and Jon performed a song so new that that it didn't have a name (unless "New, New Guy" counts) and their drummer Chris hadn't had a change to hear it yet. It was a slower song and seeing them perform it while sitting next to each other on the same piano bench made it a fitting end to a night that had been so many months in the making.

I'm looking forward to the many more great shows to come and hopefully they will be able to start recording some of their stuff in the near future. Ben indicted that recording might occur in the next week to two, so hopefully shortly after that! I'll post a link whenever that happens.

-dunkie

Just A Couple Thoughts

2009-01-19T11:57:00.000-08:00

-There is something positive to be said about having the leader of your country being in good physical health. It really does feel good knowing that our President (Elect) could take any other President out there in a 1v1 basketball game.

Seriously, how confident would you be if Obama was at an impass with another President and just said,

"Listen, this discussion isn't going anywhere. How about we just shoot for it?"

Is there anyone out there that you would even have to worry about hitting rim?

-I'm test driving the Paleo diet for a month. So far it sucks. Almost every meal requires me to cook 2 or more items. I guess this wouldn't be so bad if I had the slightest clue on how to cook things. Until now, my only real stove-cooking experience involved boiling water in order to make pasta and the such. Sadly, all of that type of food is cut out in the Paleo diet. The over/under of my lasting on this diet is about 3 days.*.. which would be Wednesday. Wish me luck.

*To be fair and not hold back any information, I should probably state that there is a candy bowl with almond roca in the reception area at the office. Everytime I pass by it takes every ounce of willpower I have to not eat any. This will be my downfall... it is really only a matter of time.

-Can anyone tell me what the difference between chopping, cutting, dicing, slicing, and mincing is? Are they just fancy words that cook book authors use so they don't sound repetitive, or is there actually a difference?

-Bill Simmons has it made. Half the stuff he puts out there is directly from his readers. There has to be at least a hundred people out there who could start ghost writing for him and no one would be the wiser. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if this already happened a la The Princess Bride.

"Well, Roberts had grown so rich, he wanted to retire. He took me to his cabin and he told me his secret. 'I am not the Dread Pirate Roberts', he said. 'My name is Ryan; I inherited the ship from the previous Dread Pirate Roberts, just as you will inherit it from me. The man I inherited it from is not the real Dread Pirate Roberts either. His name was Cummerbund. The real Roberts has been retired 15 years and living like a king in Patagonia."

Except in Bill's case, he is probably broke and living in Vegas.

Side note: I can't wait for someone to make a movie about this. Can anyone say Nicholas Cage?

-My new favorite word is "Pood."

Pood (n): a Russian unit of weight, equal to 36.11 pounds (16.38 kilograms).

It is extremely fun to say. Just try it...

...did you try it?

......when you tried it did you also stick your neck out?

It's like a natural reflex for me when I say it.

Pood... Pood... Pood!

-Fiat is considering buying a stake in Chrysler right now. I'm pretty sure that would spell doom for the Dodge Viper. This saddens me.

-Speaking of cars, mine is back from the dead. Long story short, the fuel sensor went haywire, which prevented my car from starting as a saftey precaution. Thank you Mr. 4 year/50,000 mile warranty!

That's all for today.

-dunkie

Everything Works: Just Not Necessarily For You

2009-01-15T10:51:00.000-08:00

I don't read many books. Aside from the yearly book that I receive as an x-mas present from my Aunt & Uncle and the occasional work related book, I really can't recall the last book I read. That is not to say however, that I don't read much. In fact, I think I almost spend a little to much time reading.

Of the wide assortment of things that I read up on, which ranges from whatever The Wall Street Journal is reporting to the latest in sports, I have recently found myself focusing a lot more on fitness related topics. For the most part, the majority of these articles are opinion based (resulting from personal experiences), while a smaller portion are more focused on the more technical aspects of how things work.

From what I have read, I have come to this conclusion:

Everything works.

Everything?

Yes, everything.

Simply put, in regards to fitness programs, everything out there works to some degree. The catch is that it might not work for you. Sticking with tradition, let me try to use an analogy to explain this.

Choose Your Own Adventure/Light Bulb

A light bulb in your house goes out. What do you do? Well, you take your ass down to the hardware store to buy yourself a new one.

So you do that. Now you are at the hardware store, standing in the lighting section, wondering which one of the 100 different types of light bulbs you need. Depending on who you are, or what you know, this could lead to a few different scenarios.

Scenario 1:
You know nothing about light bulbs, so you ask someone for help. When they ask you what size light bulb you need you just stare at them with a blank look on your face. "Uhh... one that gives off light?" Using those parameters, the "helpful" sales associate hands you a light bulb and tells you to go try it.

Once home, you take your new light bulb out of the package and then...

1) Scratch your head because you have no idea how to install it.
2) Electrocute yourself because you forget to turn the light switch to off before installing it.
3) You find that the light bulb is not the right size.
4) Install it successfully.

If you picked option 1 or 2, you are pretty much hopeless. Sorry. Game over.

If you went with option 3, you go back to the store with your light bulb and return it, saying that "the light bulb doesn't work." Secretly, the person at the Returns counter is thinking to themself "Of course the light bulb works. You just chose the wrong one, idiot" but of course they don't say that out loud. Instead, they suggest another light bulb that might work for you. At this point, you go home with your light bulb and repeat the steps above.

If you chose option 4, you smile to yourself happily. That is, until you realize later that

a) The light bulb is not energy is efficient.
b) The light bulb gives off a crappy yellowish light, versus the bright white light you wanted.
c) You don't realize anything because you are just happy that you have light again.

Scenario 2:

Since you are an intelligent individual (not that I'm saying people the fall into scenario 1 aren't), you brought the burnt out bulb with you. You quickly identify the same bulb and purchase it.

Once home, you take your new light bulb out of the package and then...

1) Install the light bulb, only to remember, "hey wait, I don't even like the light this bulb gives off, why the hell did I buy this same bulb again?"

2) Are completely satisfied with your new light bulb. Who cares if it isn't energy efficient? Not you.

/end analogy

Okay, so we (both you and I) probably could have done without that analogy. What I am trying to get at here is that if someone took the time to write about some fitness program they did, it is probably because of one of following:

a) They got results, liked their results, and think you should do the same.
b) Got results, but they weren't the results they wanted. Regardless, they learned from it and are trying to share that knowledge with you.
c) Were lazy and didn't work hard, and have decided that the program they used sucks and they want to share that with everyone to shift the blame.

Whatever the reason, the program itself most likely "works." That is to say, if you are starting at point A, this program will get you to point B. Problems arise when you aren't starting from point A and they get even worse when point B isn't your goal.

So what then? How do you find something that will work for you?

First off, it helps to know where you are. Simply knowing that will eliminate half of the fitness programs out there. If someone is extremely obese and has a very limited range of motion it won't exactly benefit them to jump into an Olympic Lifting program. On the flip side, it wouldn't be very beneficial for an Olympic lifter to walk on a treadmill for 30 minutes a day. Will either of these programs be of some benefit? Probably. Are they remotely the best choices for these individuals given their respective starting points? Absolutely not.

The next question is, where do you want to be? What is your goal? For some people this is easy: they want to be in better shape. Sadly, this tell us nothing. Who doesn't want to be in better shape? Given that goal, pretty much ANYTHING will work... for a time. More often then not, there will be some part of a program that just doesn't work for you and you will drop it.

For instance, the program you go on might require you to workout 5 days a week. Given the goal of being in better shape, this program should have been a perfect fit. But it isn't. Why? Because maybe you don't have the time to work out 5 days a week. Maybe you can only work out three. In this case, your goal really should have been "to get into better shape using a program that only requires me to work out 3 times a week."

Using another analogy here (a short one this time)...

It's like a smoker saying their goal is to stop smoking, except not wanting to give up nicotine. That sort of limits things, doesn't it?

With goals come sacrifices. If you don't know what you are willing to give up to reach a goal then it is hard to find a program that will help you reach your goal without some trial and error.

For others, their goal may be more specific. Their goals may be to be faster, stronger, or better looking. But again, while there may be 5 different programs for each out there, not all of them will fit into the sacrifices that you are willing to make for them to be successful. However, if you know what sacrifices you are willing to make this might narrow the programs down to 1-2. You may even come to find there aren't any programs out there for you. In this case, you may need to re-evaluate your goals or even the sacrifices you are willing to make.

Another disconnect that occurs is when people do something fitness related and they don't know why. They might know exactly where they are, and exactly where they want to be, except they end up choosing a program that just doesn't fit them. Why do they do it? Because they don't know any better, or the person that told them to do something doesn't know any better.

Everything works, and if you are lucky, it might even work for you to some degree. Whether it is optimal for you, given your goals and the sacrifices you are willing to make, is the question, and honestly, you might not care if it is optimal, as the program might fit you well and you are able to sustain it. Just being able to sustain a fitness program is a goal to many people.

If however, you can determine where you are, where you want to be, what you are willing to sacrifice, and put in the time to research why you are doing what you are doing, chances are that you will find something that not only works, but works for YOU.

All this aside, I like CrossFit.

Is it for everyone? No.

Is it scalable so that anyone can do it? Yes.

Does it allow for flexibility for people at different starting points or with different goals that may need to have an emphasis on specific componenets of fitness? Yes.

Does it work for me? Yes.

Can it work for you? Yes.

Will it be optimal for you? That depends...

-dunkie

Side note: This idea that all fitness programs essentially "work, just not ncessarily for you" has a lot of parrellels to the financial/investment industry. When it comes to investing, a lot of people have the goal to just "make as much money as possible." This is great, until their investment guy takes that idea and runs with it, and then they come to find out that their guy basically went to Vegas and bet all of their money red. For most, they are not willing to take that amount of risk, even if the potential return are great. The problem is, if they don't say that, they might find themselves in a "program" that doesn't fit them.

If you are able to identify where you are, where you want to be, and what sacrifices you are willing to make to get here then you will be taking a step in the right direction. After that, the next step should be to educate yourself so that they can find a "program"or "investment strategy" that works for you.

p.s. If you actually made it through this entire post without becoming lost and/or confused, I applaud you. I got lost just trying to proof read it...and I wrote the damn thing.

Holy **** Moment of the Day

2009-01-13T23:00:00.000-08:00

Back in the day at Voyager Elementary School we used to play a lot of soccer at recess. Typically, we would play 2nd-4th grade against the 5th graders. This would usually amount to a 20-30 vs. 8-12 scenario and if it wasn't for one factor, us younger kids would have always been slaughtered by the much more talented 5th graders. This one factor was Danny Waltman.

Danny Waltman was a 5th grader. Probably the best 5th grader at that. He could dribble past anyone and score from 50 yards out. Okay, maybe not 50 yards out, but he was amazing. To make things fair the teams fair, he would always play with us younger kids.

When I say "play with" I choose those words carefully, because that is exactly what he would do. Despite the fact that all of us sucked (except for maybe Andy and Drew) and he could easily dribble through the entire opposing team (this is no exaggeration), he was always a team player and would do everything he could to make us feel like we were actually doing something to help the team. I'm pretty sure the first legitimate soccer recess goal I ever scored came off of a Danny Waltman assist.

At some point near the end of his 5th grade year I can remember sitting with him by the wallball courts and him telling me that he was moving and that he wouldn't be going to Kopachuck Middle School, which was right across the way. This pretty much meant that I would never see him again.

To get to the point of all this, Danny Waltman was my hero in elementary school. If there was anyone that I wanted to be like during those years on the playground, it was him. Throughout the years I've always wondered what happened to him, that is until today when Facebook informed me that another elementary school friend of mine had joined the Danny Waltman Fan Club.

Holy S***!!!! Danny Waltman?!?!

Apparently, Danny went onto be a 4 year starter at Bellarmine Prep. He also attended the University of Washington where he made second team All Pac-10 his senior year and was voted Most Inspirational by his teammates. Currently, he plays in the Major League Indoor Soccer League as a goalie for the Detroit Ignition.

I don't think he himself is on Facebook, and I probably will never get a chance to talk to him. But on the off chance that he decides to Google his name and this page pops up...

Danny,

Thank you for being my hero all those days on the Voyager playground. You were an inspiration and role model to us all.

Sincerely,

-The little asian kid that used to follow you around at recess... and was really bad at soccer

Note: This is a recollection from my elementary school days and might not be 100% accurate, but is it the best I can remember things. I'm a little hazy on how the teams were split up grade wise (it may have been 1-3 vs 4-5) and I can't recall exactly why I was never going to see Danny again. I do however clearly remember sitting down with him by the wallball courts and him telling me that he was going away.

New Years Resolution. About Damn Time...

2009-01-13T20:35:00.000-08:00

This is probably my 4th or 5th go at trying to write this blog. Within those attempts, I've easily come up with a dozen different goals, all of which I was never really happy with. That being said, I going to skip the fluff and jump right to my New Years resolution, as to avoid a 6th attempt at this.

My 2009 New Years resolution is to qualify for the 2010 CrossFit Games. There, I said it. No going back now. Onwards and upwards!

Okay, now onto the fluff...

Q: 2010 CrossFit Games? Isn't that... in 2010?

A: Yes. The regional qualifiers would be somewhere around May 2010, with the actual games in July of 2010. This gives me roughly 18 months to prepare.

Q: Why not the 2009 CrossFit Games?

A: I'm planning on participating in the regional qualifier, but it would be an extreme longshot for me to qualify (I'd put it up there with the Huskies chances of making a bowl game next year). Only 4 men and 4 women are taken from the NW Region.

Really, I'm just planning on going this year for fun and the experience. 6 months should be enough time to not completely embarrass myself, where 18 months should be enough time to actually reach a competitive level.

Q: So... this is your big goal that it took you two weeks to write down?

A: Encompassed within this goal are dozens of smaller goals that I am going to have to work to get to my destination. There are about 1-2 dozen benchmarks that I will be working towards over the next 18 months that will help gauge my process. On top of that, this is going to take a lot of dedication and commitment.

Q: What are some of these benchmarks?

A: CrossFit has a lot of daily workouts (WOD's) that serve as benchmarks that people can do to compare there level of fitness to others who are doing the same workouts. The most notorious of these is a workout called "Fran," which involves a round of each of the following:

21 Thrusters - 95 lbs. /21 Pull Ups

15 Thrusters - 95 lbs. /15 Pull Ups

9 Thrusters -95 lbs. / 9 Pull Ups

I believe the current record for this is 2 minutes and 5 seconds, however I don't believe this record is performed to competition standards, which includes full depth squats with no ball, and chest to bar pull ups. These additional requirements can add a significant amount of time, which make a 5 minute "Fran" competitive.

Another benchmark is what is referred to as a CrossFit Total. This is a total of your max deadlift, squat, and press. You are allowed 3 attempts at each and there are strict form guidelines that help to standardize the lifts. Anything over 1000 is pretty ridiculous. Especially considering that some of these guys are 160-165 lbs. A CFT of 900 is pretty competitive.

I am confident that I can reach many of these competitive levels in the next 18 month. The X-factor here is the fact that the CrossFit games is only now coming into its 3rd year. Two years ago, a CFT of 900 was considered amazing. Now, those same competitors are reaching 1000-1100.

Q: Uh... what is CrossFit again?

A: Visit www.crossfit.com for more information. I also have a short blog post on it if you don't feel like making the jump.

Here is a video from the 2008 CrossFit Games:

Q: Why this? Why not something else as your goal?

A: I could probably write an entire book about this, which would include much of my life story. To save you (and I) the pain of going through that, let's just go with the cliff-note version:

I find myself being at or around average at a lot of things. This makes CrossFit a good fit for me as it stresses a balance between all 10 aspects of fitness. I don't think that I'm great, or horrible at any one aspect, which makes me a fairly balanced person in regards to fitness. Do I see myself being the strongest person out there? Of course not. What I do see is the possibility of being above average and excelling at all of the aspects of fitness? Yes.

Aside from the whole physical aspects of this goal, I think this will also be a great challenge mentally. With all that in mind, that is how I came to this goal.

Q: What if you don't make it?

A: My fallback plan is to move to Japan and attempt to become The Ultimate Ninja Warrior.

*Note: Ugh... just tried to find the YouTube video of this but it looks like all of them were removed due to copyright infringements.

Q: What...

A: Sorry, that's all the time I have for questions tonight. In closing I'd just like to say that I am disappointed that we never found any weapons of mass destruction.

-dunkie

I Just Peed My Pants

2009-01-05T15:56:00.000-08:00

Not really... but almost. The Tampa Bay Rays just signed Pat Burrell to a 2 year, $16 million dollar deal. If you don't know anything about Burrell, he is basically a slightly crappier version of Raul Ibanez, much like Franklin Gutierrez is a slightly crappier version of Adam Jones.

If you don't know who any of those people are, then just think of buying an VW vs. an Audi, or a Toyota vs. a Lexus. The former will cost you 2/3's the price, but you will basically be getting the same thing plus or minus a few bells and whistles.

That being said, this signing eliminates what is speculated to be one of Griffey's top two choices to play next year, as Burrell will most likely DH for the Rays. This leaves Seattle as Junior's next top choice.

Is it to early to predict that Seattle sports will single-handedly be brought back from the dead by Griffey in 2009?

If I buy tickets to opening day at Safeco will I just jinx things, causing the Mariners front office to not sign him, or even worse, him being hurt before the season even starts?

Do I want to shoot myself in the face for writing that last paragraph?

Should I even mention that I broke a mirror this morning?

I'm going to shut up now.

-dunkie

p.s. one last thing... Burrell wasnt resigned by the Phillies because they decided to "upgrade" and sign Raul Ibanez. If Griffey ends up in Seattle because of this sequence of events (i.e. the Mariners not beating the Phillies offer to keep Ibanez in Seattle) it might actually pee my pants.

p.p.s. how pathetic is it that I am actually trying convince myself this is all part of Zdurienik's master plan? Ugh...

Where to start?

2009-01-04T20:56:00.000-08:00

-It's snowing again. Pursuant of my last post, I'm not very excited about this. On the somewhat bright side, if things ice over I will probably have the day off tomorrow on the account of my car being unable to leave the garage. Strangely enough, I'm kind of ready to get back to work right now.

-In the last month I've had 3 friends tie the knot, and another 3 that are now officially engaged. Did I miss a memo here or something? Speaking of which... Sherman, have you gotten the memo yet?

-There was just an infomercial on TV for the "GRAbit," which is a tool that removed stripped screws "in under 10 seconds!" I don't think I've ever been so tempted to buy something from an infomercial in my life. I'm not quite sure if it is because trying to remove a stripped screw is extremely frustrating, or because instead of a "order in the next 10 minutes and save" they actually have a 30 second count down clock on the screen. I actually found myself thinking "I need this right? Where is my phone? I only have 21 seconds left!"

-My house is flooding. Well, not really. A few days ago a puddle of water started to form outside of our laundry room. My landlord just came over and she seems to think that we opened the door to the washing machine mid cycle and let a bunch of water pour out, and are thus responsible for the water damage that has occurred. This actually makes sense except that:

A) My roommate is currently in Australia.

B) I haven't done laundry for over two weeks and the laundry room door has been closed the whole time.

C) Opening the washing machine door after you start a load is about a 4 step process, each step of which would be impossible to complete without thinking to one's self "If I do this, a large amount of water is going to spill out onto the floor." I may be stupid sometimes, but I'm not THAT stupid.

I can't wait to see how this whole situation works itself out. And by situation, I mean how to deal with my dwindling supply of boxer briefs and socks.

-The 2008 Hoops & Suey Reunion Tour has officially concluded. Among the highlights of the reunion...

1) The girl Hoops "found" himself dancing with, on New Years Eve. She was definitely a dime piece among a sea of 1 dollar bills. This whole situation only got better when her date started trying to dance with her at the same time as Hoops. Hilarious.

2) Mystery Pong. It's what happens at the end of a week of drinking when only the following is left in your refrigerator:

1 can of Guinness

2 cans of Bud light

2 bottles of some strange wheat beer

1 half bottle of champagne

1 half bottle of tequila

1 half cartoon of 2% milk

Let's just say that this was a horrible time for my week long win streak to come to an end...

3) When you put two people (Pat and Hoops) in a situation where they probably will never see anyone they meet ever again you are pretty much asking for a world of embarrassment. As a result of this I'm pretty sure I won't be going to The Hob Nob again anytime soon, which is a shame because their breakfast menu is pretty amazing.

That's all I have for now... Stay tuned for a New Years Resolution update.

-dunkie

The Not So Ultimate Driving Machine

2008-12-22T21:26:00.000-08:00

How bad is my car in the snow right now? It sucks so bad that I was unable to get over the 6 inch incline to make it into my driveway. As a result, I've had to park my car on the street for the last two nights.

Further exemplifying my car's suckyness, I tried to move it just now and was only able to succeed in sliding the car back 15 feet, at which point my car was stopped by the pile of snow that my neighbor made when he cleared his driveway.

To top it all off, I may have succeeded in applying a nice dose of curb rash to my wheels while sliding backwards. I'm crossing my fingers that the thick layer of ice that was encasing the curb prevented any major damage.

I'm pretty sure I'm not going to be able to move my car for a few days. That, or I am going to have to spend a few hours with my invisible shovel to clear the area surrounding my car tomorrow. Ugh... I should have bought an Audi.

-dunkie

CrossFit

2008-12-20T22:12:00.000-08:00

I guess I should rewind a little bit here and take a moment to provide some explanation of what CrossFit is. In order to best do so, I'm just going to steal bits and pieces from various CrossFit websites that I find useful. This is also because I'm lazy and have no desire to reinvent the wheel...

According to CrossFit founder Greg Glassman,

"CrossFit is a core strength and conditioning program in two distinct senses.

First, we are a “core” strength and conditioning program in the sense that the fitness we develop is foundational to all other athletic needs. This is the same sense in which the university courses required of a particular major are called the “core curriculum”. This is the stuff that everyone needs.

Second, we are a “core” strength and conditioning program in the literal sense meaning the center of something. Much of our work focuses on the major functional axis of the human body, the extension and flexion, of the hips and extension, flexion, and rotation of the torso or trunk. The primacy of core strength and conditioning in this sense is supported by the simple observation that powerful hip extension alone is necessary and nearly sufficient for elite athletic performance. That is, our experience has been that no one without the capacity for powerful hip extension enjoys great athletic prowess and nearly everyone we’ve met with that capacity was a great athlete.

Running, jumping, punching and throwing all originate at the core. At CrossFit we endeavor to develop our athletes from the inside out, from core to extremity, which is by the way how good functional movements recruit muscle, from the core to the extremities."

CrossFit is a program designed to elicit as broad an adaptational response as possible. It is not a specialized fitness program, but a deliberate attempt to optimize physical competence in each of ten recognized fitness domains:

1. Cardiovascular/Respiratory Endurance- The ability of body systems to gather, process, and deliver oxygen.

2. Stamina - The ability of body systems to process, deliver, store, and
utilize energy.

3. Strength - The ability of a muscular unit, or combination of muscular units, to apply force.

4. Flexibility - the ability to maximize the range of motion at a given joint.

5. Power - The ability of a muscular unit, or combination of muscular units, to apply maximum force in minimum time.

6. Speed - The ability to minimize the time cycle of a repeated movement.

7. Coordination - The ability to combine several distinct movement patterns into a singular distinct movement.

8. Agility - The ability to minimize transition time from one movement
pattern to another.

9. Balance - The ability to control the placement of the body's center of
gravity in relation to its support base.

10. Accuracy - The ability to control movement in a given direction or at a given intensity.

The general idea of CrossFit is to not specialize in any one aspect of fitness, but to train and excel in all aspects.

In 100 words...

"Eat meat and vegetables, nuts and seeds, some fruit, little starch and no sugar. Keep intake to levels that will support exercise but not body fat. Practice and train major lifts: Deadlift, clean, squat, presses, C&J, and snatch. Similarly, master the basics of gymnastics: pull-ups, dips, rope climb, push-ups, sit-ups, presses to handstand, pirouettes, flips, splits, and holds. Bike, run, swim, row, etc, hard and fast. Five or six days per week mix these elements in as many combinations and patterns as creativity will allow. Routine is the enemy. Keep workouts short and intense. Regularly learn and play new sports."

Hopefully that provides an adequate explanation of what CrossFit is. Most questions that you might have about CrossFit can be answered by reading the F.A.Q. on www.CrossFit.com. Or if you'd like, post any questions that you have to the comments and I'll try my best to answer them.

-dunkie

Angie & Diane

2008-12-20T15:24:00.000-08:00

Angie

100 pull-ups

100 push-ups

100 sit-ups

100 squats

I almost wussed out on this one today. I felt pretty horrible (great) from the Filthy Fifty yesterday and didn't know if I would be able to get through this in a reasonable amount of time. Hoops said he might do this today so that gave me a little motivation and by the time I walked down to the downtown Y I had convinced myself that I had it in me. Anyways...

Time: 21:34

Not horrible, but nothing earth shattering. I feel like I could have done a sub 20:00 on this if I was fresh. My kip disappeared after the first 50 pull-ups which made the second 50 even worse. Also, I am regretting doing the sit-ups on the hardwood gym floor as my tailbone feels like it's on fire right now. A 15:00 on this would be great.

After I picked myself off the gym floor I figured that I didn't really have anything else important to do today, or tomorrow for that matter and decided to give Diane a go (she was my backup plan had I not done Angie).

Diane

21-15-9

deadlift - 225 lbs.

handstand push-ups

My hands have been pretty torn up lately so I decided to use straps for this one. Also, the downtown Y doesn't have a lifting matt which makes doing deadlift a little bit more disruptive then I would have liked. I'm getting better at handstand push-ups, but that doesn't really say much seeing as how I could barely get into the handstand position two weeks ago.

Time: 12:46

I'm kind of disappointed with this one. I think I'll try this one again in a week or two. I feel like I should be able to break 9:00.

Rest day tomorrow. Maybe I'll work on some form stuff and practice a few of the "beast skills" I'm trying to learn. Might be fun doing that in the snow... Then again, maybe I'll just sit in bed, watch football, and stay warm. That sounds pretty good also.

-dunkie

The Filthy Fifty

2008-12-19T18:12:00.000-08:00

The Filthy Fifty

50 Box Jumps - 24"

50 Jumping Pull-Ups

50 KB Swings - 1 Pood

50 Walking Lunges

50 Knees to Elbows

50 Push Press - 45 lbs

50 Back Extensions

50 Wall Ball Shots - 20 lbs, 10'

50 Burpees

50 Double Unders

I didn't have any KB's so I used a 35 lb. plate instead (1 lb. shy of a Pood). Also, the heaviest med ball available was 16 lbs so the wall ball shots were done at 12'. Aside from that, the workout was done as RX'ed.

Time: 28:06

Notes: This was my first time attempting the Filthy Fifty. My K2E's need serious work, as do my double-unders. Hoping to break 25:00 next time and ultimately work towards a sub 20:00.

It's supposed to snow heavily tomorrow so I'll probably have to figure out something that I can do at the Y. I'll probably take a go at Angie.

Angie

100 pull-ups

100 push-ups

100 sit-ups

100 squats

-dunkie

Character

2008-12-17T14:15:00.000-08:00

Back in September I was asked to give a speech at my high school that centered around making college related decisions. One central theme in the speech was character.

The C-Dub mission statement reads:

“[C-Dub] provides a rigorous liberal arts program guided by an ethos of excellence and compassion. Within a diverse learning community, we foster self-reliance, integrity, social responsibility, and humor, empowering our students to achieve their personal best in mind, body, and spirit.”

Excellence.

Compassion.

Self-reliance.

Integrity.

Social responsibility.

Humor.

When I read these words, what comes to mind is character. C-Dub’s mission is to build character.

What is character?

Well, according to H. Jackson Brown, Jr.:

“Our character is what we do when we think no one is looking.”

So what does that mean?

Throughout high school C-Dub provides significant character educators. Between parents, coaches, and teachers, there is almost always someone looking, whether the students know it or not. When help is needed, or questionable decisions are made, these character educators are able to step in to provide guidance.

In a sense, character educators are like training wheels or a safety net for when a student loses their balance. Not only that, but they provide a helping hand to get someone back on their feet and moving again should they fall. It is through this process that C-Dub creates an environment that fosters character development.

How does this relate to college decisions?

In college the training wheels come off. 95% of a college student’s time will be spent with no one but their peers looking. In a sense, it’s huge open book/take home test that everyone has to take. Sure, a student can ask for another students help, except that each person is different and has their own test of character to take. On top of that, since every test is unique, the answers cannot be found in the back of any book.

Above everything else, I believe that C-Dub prepares students to deal with tests of character. In other words, C-Dub teaches students; excellence, compassion, self-reliance, integrity, social responsibility, and humor; for those times when no one is looking.

Why am I just now writing about this?

The short answer is because I’m sitting at home right now without cable or internet due to the current weather conditions in Washington and I figure that I mind as well write something in Word to post later…

The long answer…

I found myself thinking about what I had said in my speech a few months back when I was working out today. Specifically, in regards to the quote:

“Our character is what we do when we think no one is looking.”

On most days, I work out alone. And by that I mean completely alone, with no one else around. While I like this for many reasons, one specific reason is that I am able to try new things and look like a complete idiot with no one watching… at least that’s what I’ve been telling myself.

When I think about it more, I believe that it comes down to two things. Failure and weakness. I, like many people, don’t try new things often for the reason that I am scared to fail or look weak in the presence of others. In regards to character, this raises the question:

Is character what we do when someone is looking?

To answer my own question, I don’t think it is. I think the answer in this case is that character is not being afraid of what other people might think should one fail or show weakness. In doing so, one is able to show character by not fearing judgment, and not being affected by the fact that someone may be watching.

I’m rambling…

To bring this full circle, I enjoy coaching at C-Dub. Be it the middle school baseball team, or helping out with off-season weightlifting for the football team. My coaching philosophy is to encourage the development of excellence, compassion, self-reliance, integrity, social responsibility (teamwork) and humor.

I hope to create an environment where failure and weakness are not only accepted, but welcomed, as they both play an important part in the development of character and athleticism.

To steal a line from Kanye:

“That that don’t kill me, can only make me stronger.”

One last thing…

Character development doesn’t end, and for that matter, nor does the open book test on it. For all the character I hope to develop in the students I coach, I will probably learn equally as much, if not more about my own. For that, I am thankful.

By the way... is anyone reading this?

-dunkie

Bar Stool Economics

2008-12-10T09:52:00.000-08:00

This has been circulating the internet lately and has shown up in my e-mail box a number of times. If you haven't seen it yet, I hope you will take the time to read and think about it for a bit...

Bar Stool Economics

By David R. Kamerschen, Ph.D. Professor of Economics, University of Georgia

Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100. If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:

The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.
The fifth would pay $1.
The sixth would pay $3.
The seventh would pay $7.
The eighth would pay $12.
The ninth would pay $18.
The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.

So, that’s what they decided to do. The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve. ‘Since you are all such good customers, he said, ‘I’m going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20. Drinks for the ten now cost just $80.

The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free. But what about the other six men - the paying customers? How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his ‘fair share?’

They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody’s share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer. So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man’s bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.!

And so:

The fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100% savings).
The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33%savings).
The seventh now pay $5 instead of $7 (28%savings).
The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% savings).
The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% savings).
The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% savings).

Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free. But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.

‘I only got a dollar out of the $20,’declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man,’ but he got $10!’

‘Yeah, that’s right,’ exclaimed the fifth man. ‘I only saved a dollar, too. It’s unfair that he got ten times more than I!’

‘That’s true!!’ shouted the seventh man. ‘Why should he get $10 back when I got only two? The wealthy get all the breaks!’

‘Wait a minute,’ yelled the first four men in unison. ‘We didn’t get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!’

The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.

The next night the tenth man didn’t show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They didn’t have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!

And that, boys and girls, journalists and college professors, is how our tax system works. The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking overseas where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.

For those who understand, no explanation is needed.

For those who do not understand, no explanation is possible.

Restore the Uptick Rule, Restore Confidence

2008-12-09T11:37:00.000-08:00

The following article was taken from the The Wall Street Journal...

Restore the Uptick Rule, Restore Confidence
Short sales of stocks are fine given one tried and tested regulation.

By CHARLES R. SCHWAB

The last time the stock market suffered from extreme volatility and risk of market manipulation as severe as we are experiencing today, our grandparents' generation stepped up to the plate and instituted the uptick rule. That was 1938. For nearly 70 years average investors benefited immensely from that one simple stabilizing act.

Unfortunately, in a shortsighted move, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) eliminated the rule in July 2007, just as we were about to need it most. Investors have now been whipsawed by what appears to be manipulative trading, what we used to call "bear raids," which drive stock prices down without warning and at breakneck speed. Average investors feel the deck is stacked against them and are losing confidence in the markets.

For the sake of our children and grandchildren, and to avoid a needless future repeat of a bad situation, it is time to restore the uptick rule.

The uptick rule may seem far from a kitchen-table issue, but it is critically important to ordinary investors. With more than half of all U.S. households invested in the stock market, either directly or through a retirement plan, it matters a great deal. The average 401(k) retirement account has lost 20%-30% of its value over the last 18 months -- more than $2 trillion in retirement savings has been wiped out. Behind those numbers are real people who planned and saved, and who are suddenly facing an uncertain retirement and the prospect of working longer.

In the wake of the Great Depression, the uptick rule was established to eliminate manipulation and boost investor confidence. The rule said that short sales could be made only after the price of a stock had moved up (an "uptick") over the prior sale. This slowed the short selling process making it more expensive and limiting the ability of short sellers to manipulate stocks lower by piling on, driving the share price quickly down and quickly profiting from the downdraft they created. In July 2007, however, the SEC repealed the uptick rule after a brief study. Manipulative short sellers couldn't believe their luck.

The SEC's study took place during a period of low volatility and overall rising stock prices in 2005 through part of 2007 and didn't anticipate the kind of market we are experiencing today. We live in an environment now where 200 point drops or more in the Dow Jones Industrial Average are increasingly common, where a stock losing 20%, 30% or even more of its value in a single day barely warrants a second glance at the ticker. Ironically, it was just this sort of volatility that inspired the regulators of the 1930s to implement the uptick rule in the first place. Without this vital control mechanism, short sellers have been having a field day, betting heavily on lower prices and triggering panicked investors to sell even more.

Don't get me wrong. Legitimate short selling where a trader has borrowed shares for future delivery and believes those shares will lose value over time plays an important and stabilizing role in our markets. It provides a check on overexuberant prices on the upside, and provides natural buyers on the downside. The uptick rule, however, prevents short selling from turning into manipulative activity. Reinstating it will help smooth out the markets and reduce the speed of price drops. It will limit the ability of a small number of professional investors to trigger fast dramatic price drops that create panic among investors.

The SEC has an opportunity to make a real difference in helping to control future market stability and restore confidence in the fairness of our capital markets. But the SEC has been strangely silent as the crisis has worsened. It did step in earlier this fall to implement short stock borrowing restrictions and a temporary ban on short selling, first on 19 stocks in the financial services sector, and later in a broader swath of 900 stocks across several sectors. But these steps were a temporary half-measure and didn't fix the problem for the long term. Clearly, the SEC will need to work on some of the mechanics of reinstating the uptick rule. Regulators should act quickly to establish a framework and solicit public comment, then reinstate the rule and remain flexible and willing to fine tune it if necessary.

Ordinary investors' expectations for investing are reasonable. They want a fair playing field. They want to be successful. They want to provide for their families, support their children's education, have a comfortable retirement, and maybe even leave a little bit for future generations. But they can't succeed when the markets are gripped by fear and manipulated by those who want to profit from that fear, at the expense of everyone else.

It may be too late for the restoration of the uptick rule to have much impact on where we are today. But there is no reason to wait and we need the protection in place for the future. It is time to restore it. It's what our grandparents did for us in 1938, and it worked for nearly 70 years. With that kind of track record, we should tip our hats to the regulators of yesteryear and acknowledge that they had it right all along.

Mr. Schwab is the founder and chairman of the financial services firm that bears his name.

Rome... Rome... ROME!!!!

2008-12-08T14:31:00.000-08:00

The following quotes were all taken from separate articles in today’s Wall Street Journal.

“President-elect Barack Obama and congressional Democrats are intensifying work on a stimulus plan that would dole out roughly a half-trillion dollars over two years on tax-rebate checks and an array of "green" projects from home weatherization to renewable energy.”

“Their focus is on passing a separate, half-trillion dollar stimulus program that Mr. Obama said Sunday would be the largest infrastructure program since the Eisenhower administration's construction of the interstate highway system.”

“The Marine Corps is on pace to expand its force by tens of thousands more than two years ahead of schedule, a rare bit of good news for a military stretched thin by the long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.”

Large scale public works projects…

Increased military size…

Handing out money to the plebes…

“Ladies and Gentlemen! I give you, Six Degrees to the Roman Empire!!!”

Okay, so maybe I’m not being serious here. Maybe I'm just trying to fill the void in my life that HBO left when they decided to cancel "Rome" after two seasons due to production costs. But if I was being serious...

- Would Obama be granted a Triumph if he brought the troops home from Iraq? According to Wikipedia, these are the qualifications needed for one:

Win a significant victory over a foreign enemy, killing at least 5,000 enemy troops, and earn the title imperator.
Be an elected magistrate with the power of imperium, i.e. a dictator, consul, or a praetor.
Bring the army home, signifying that the war was over and that the army was no longer needed. Of course this only applied to the Republican era when the army was a citizen army. By the imperial period, when the army was professional, the proper triumph was reserved for the emperor and his family. If a general was awarded a triumph by the emperor, he would march with a token number of his troops.
In the Republican period, the senate had to give approval for a triumph based on the above mentioned requirements.

Assuming that being elected President covers whole “power of imperium” issue, I figure that the senate would be willing to wave the whole "kill 5,000 enemy troops” requirement (while he is in office) so long as Obama were to actually bring them home.

Side-note: If we actually had Triumphs, would Bush have brought the troops home months ago? Even if he did, would the Senate have given him the finger and denied him the honor of a Triumph?

- Would the UFC replace Celine Dion as main attraction at The Colosseum in Caesars Palace? If they matched up UFC fighters against convicted Terrorists would it be in violation of the Geneva Convention? Would watching this event on PPV make me a war criminal?

- Obama mentioned something a while back about creating a Civilian National Security Force. Would this be like the Praetorian Guard? Can Russell Crowe be part of this? “PRAETORIAN!!!”

Okay, enough of this. Time get get serious. Back to work…

-dunkie

The Office...Mom

2008-12-08T13:02:00.000-08:00

I work for my dad. He also happens owns the business. Since the state of Washington is a community property state, I guess that also implies that I work for my mom.?

As a result, my mother tends to visit my office frequently. These "visits" typically involve her bugging me for 30 minutes, using our postage machine to send out personal letters, and then "borrowing" whatever supplies we have in stock (i.e. pens, yellow note pads, ect...).

Today, she stopped by in order to make copies of some X-mas card she put together. In her attempts to do so, she jammed our printer and had to be escorted out of the office before anything else was broken. I'd feel bad about doing this, except she then decided to then plant herself outside my door for 30 minutes and make faces at me while I tried to eat my lunch.

If my mom was 20 years older I'd probably try to get her to audition for a part on The Office as Michael Scott's mother. I'm pretty sure they could make an entire season around this.

- Michael's mom moves into town. She decides to visit him at the office and brings treats for everyone. Everyone loves her except Dwight, who saw her slip a pen into her purse before she left...

- Michael's mom calls Pam to set up an appointment with Michael under the title "Important Client Meeting." Michael, thinking that he actually has an important client meeting scheduled, is stressed all day becaue he has no idea what the meeting is about.

- Michael's mom decides to redecorate The Office with the help of Angela. Phyllis is left out of the planning committe and becomes unfriendly with Michael's mom.

- Jim takes Michael's mom out on a date. Michael's mom procedes to tell Jim embarrassing stories about Michael. Jim procedes to tell Michael's mom that he thinks Michael needs to get out more often.

- Michael's mom attempts to set Michael up on a blind date. Reluctantly, Michael agrees. At the same time, in an attempt to patch up her relationshop with Phyllis, Michael's mom sets her up on a blind date also...

The storyline possibilities really are endless here. Hell, I think you could even make a whole separate TV show about this. Are any TV execs out there reading this? This needs to happen, if only to get my mom from stop bugging me at work.

-dunkie

A Good Day?

2008-12-06T13:01:00.000-08:00

Last night I was listening to music while attempting to fall asleep when "It Was a Good Day" by Ice Cube came up on my playlist. Normally, this would be a nice song to end the day on, but when the lyrics "The Lakers beat the Supersonics" came up I instantly became bummed.

With the Supersonics gone, will there every be a "Good Day" again? Will future generations ever be able to relate to the words of Ice Cube? As depressing thoughts such as these flooded my mind, a vision came to me.

I will now share that vision with you...

On February 10, 2009 the Lakers play the "Team Not to be Named" at the Staples Center. In my vision I see the lights go down as the Kobe Bryant lead his team out of the tunnel to Ice Cubes ballad.

The game itself will play out much like last years meeting when Kobe scored 48 points, including an 18 footer in overtime to seal the victory 123-121, except this time he will have a triple-double. Both Ice Cube and Gary Payton (despite his differences with Kobe) will be sitting courtside the entire game next to Jack Nicholson.

Following the game, Kobe will walk up to the press conference podium wearing an open suit jacket with a Sonics t-shirt underneath. After looking around a few times, a wide smile will appear on his face, at which point he will lean over towards the microphone and simply say, "Today, was a good day."

As the assembled media collectively raises their hands to ask him what exactly he is talking about, he will stand up and walk off the stage. With no further explanation needed, Sonics fans worldwide will end their period of mourning and pour one last drop out for their former team.

This my friends, is the vision that I share with you. Now, if only there was some way to make it a reality...

-dunkie

A Short Thanksgiving Recap

2008-12-05T14:45:00.000-08:00

YMCA Turkey Bowl: Our team won, no thanks in part to myself, as my hamstring decide to go on strike midway through the first game. CJ threw for roughly 20,000 TD’s, half of which were on short passes to this ridiculously quick guy named Chris who would run past 7 defenders and into the end zone before they could grab his flag.

CWA Turkey Bowl: My team won, twice. This time, I’d like to think that I had some small part in it due to my team picking skills. The best part of the whole event was Todd showing up and pulling out the hit stick on an interception pass that was 30 yards downfield at the time of “The Hit.”

My Hamstring: Still hates me. When did I turn into an injury prone old man? This sucks.

Thanksgiving Dinner: My mom decided not to make mashed potatoes this year and went with some fancy rice dish instead. If she ever decides to pull this stunt again it isn’t going to be pretty.

Thanksgiving Dinner Discussion: When asked what I was thankful for, I decided to go with the controversial “I’m thankful for our President, George Bush.” After all, the guy has served our country for the last 8 years. Despite what you may think of him, can we at least give him a little bit of respect?

This made my sister go crazy, at which point something along the lines of

“Are you serious? George Bush CAUSED 9/11. Have you not seen Fahrenheit 9/11?”

came out of her mouth. She then followed this up by saying that the Bush family gave money to foreign oil companies, which had terrorist connections, which meant that our President caused 9/11.

Apparently, she mistook the “6 Degrees to Kevin Bacon” game for the “6 Degrees to Causing 9/11” game. It’s one thing to draw connections or even state that George Bush could have done more to prevent 9/11, but to blame the President for actually causing 9/11? Get serious.

CWA Masa Reunion: Good times. At some point in the night I made the decision to walk the 1.8 miles home. Luckily, Zeyad drove by and came to my rescue by taking me the rest of the way. Sadly, he was unable to save me from the extremely painful Saturday that I went through, which was obviously caused by my hamstring injury and had nothing to do with tequila shots.

-dunkie

Warning: Potty Talk

2008-12-05T13:05:00.000-08:00

I had a seriously awkward experience today and I find that I must share it with you. This awkward experience also brings up another issue that I have been debating whether or not to talk about, because frankly, it's kind of disgusting. If you are female, you may find some of this a little gross. Then again, I find this a little gross, so whatever. Okay, that's my disclaimer. Onto the potty talk...

If aren't aware, I work in a smallish-sized office building. It is a very nice building and about three other companies share the space with us. Along with this shared space is two private, single bathrooms. One for men, one for women.

Typically, there are a few hunting and golfing magazines sitting on top of the toilet, which I expect is standard with offices like ours. Today however, instead of golfing magazines, there were three editions of Playboy sitting on top of the toilet. WTF?

Not that I have anything against Playboy, or beautiful naked women for that matter, but who leaves Playboy magazines in restroom, at a place of business? If you want to sneak one in there, that's one thing (still pretty weird), but these were obviously left there for other people to read. One thought is that maybe someone accidentally left them there? Doubtful considering there were three of them. The second thought is that it was a joke? It isn't April fools though.

The awkward part of this is that I'm easily the youngest guy in the building. All the other men here have to be over 50... which means one of them decided to buy three Playboys and stick them in the men's room, for their, and others enjoyment. This is extremely creepy and I really am trying not to think about it more then I have too right now.

As the youngest, I hope I don't get blamed for this. I'd throw them away myself, except I really have no desire to touch them. Also, there is a small part of me that is waiting/hoping for someone else to see them and get mad about it. Hopefully, that someone won't be one of our clients.

Really now, who in their right mind would think that Playboy would be appropriate office restroom reading material? A house with a bunch of college guys? Sure. But an office? Wow. This boggles my mind. Which reminds me of the second thing I wanted to discuss...

If I were to go into a stall at a public restroom, say at a stadium, movie theater, or even a school, I'd almost expect (sadly) to see that someone had some piss poor aim (pun intended). What I don't expect, is that when going into a restroom in a small business office (where only 10 or so people that use the restroom) that I would find the same.

Again, WTF? The reason I would expect this in a public place is because there are probably a lot of 3rd graders out there who probably don't care if they lift the toilet seat. But 50 year old men? Come on now, give me a break. At the very least, feel free to clean up after yourself.

On the bright side, we are moving offices this month. Well, in actuality we are just moving to the other side of the building. Luckily, there is a separate bathroom over there and I am hopeful that these issues will not carry over.

-dunkie

Economic Ramblings

2008-12-05T12:20:00.000-08:00

First off...

The picture to the right is of my parent’s dog, Sophie Alice Duncan, and has nothing to do with this post. I just thought I’d use it because I thought it was funny. The picture is taken at her “graduation” from obedience school.

My parents must have paid off the school to let her graduate because she has a muzzle on. To her credit, I think she is starting to calm down a bit, but that isn’t saying much given how much of a little hell hound she is/was.

Also, I’d like to apologize to the young lady that I got into an economic/political debate with about 9 months ago. Despite not knowing the definition of a recession, it turns out that she was correct when she stated that we were currently in one.

Moving on…

The other day the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announced that the United States is officially in a recession (two consecutive quarters of declining Gross Domestic Product) that dates back to December 2007. Why are they only now announcing this? Well, since the economic data used to calculate GDP is released after the fact, a recession can’t really be made official until you’ve actually been in one for 6 months.

A quick macroeconomic refresher…

GDP is “the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” It is commonly calculated using the following method:

GDP = consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports – imports)

To summarize these parts…

Consumption: Personal expenditures like food, clothing, and booze.

Investment: Investments in capital by business or households such as a house, machinery, or equipment.

Note: financial products (i.e. stocks, bonds, mortgage backed securities…) are not considered “investments” in economics; rather, they are considered “savings.”

Government Spending: Spending by the government on things like infrastructure, research, and weapons of mass destruction.

Imports/Exports: Good that we bring into the country and goods that we ship out. When we import goods we send money out of the country, meaning we decrease our GDP. When we export goods we bring money into the country, which increases our GDP.

Refreshed? Let’s continue…
GDP is down. We are in a recession. While this doesn’t necessarily mean each component of GDP is down, in this case, well… it does.

If you turn on the news you will no doubt see something about decreased spending by holiday shoppers this year. Reduced consumption? Check.

Drive around town a bit and you will probably see a fair number of “for sale” signs. Reduced investment? Got it.

Anyone see any weapons of mass destruction lying about? No? So much for Government spending.

I wonder how many American cars are being driven around in Japan/South Korea? Not a lot I’m guessing. Imports > Exports.

Okay, so maybe the whole WMD thing is a joke and I’m sure many people will argue that Government spending is actually up (see: $700 billion dollar bailout), but that money isn’t exactly going to “final goods and services” and won’t directly affect GDP.

Questions… Questions… Questions…

Q: Okay, so how does the bailout affect GDP?
A: One of the major affects of the bailout is that financial institutions are still able to operate and lend money. These loans allow people and companies to make investments, such as buy homes or business equipment. Investments by businesses hopefully assist in the growth of companies, which leads to more job opportunities. As these new jobs are created and filled and paychecks start to come in, consumption will also increase.

However, even with lending available, there are not many companies out there who are looking to expand. It isn’t exactly a great time to stick your neck out there and grow in hopes that your income will grow proportionally.

Q: So, in other words, the bailout “ain’t doin’ s***” for our GDP?
A: Not exactly. Let’s take a look at what happens to GDP if the bailout never passed. Without a bailout there is no question that many of the financial institutions out there go under and are forced to close shop. This creates unemployment. In turn, unemployment leads to lower consumption and lower investment.

For instance, let’s say the Russell Investment Group had to close shop. That’s 1,100 people in Tacoma who would be looking for jobs, which does not include other businesses in the area who would suffer from the loss of business from Russell employees. On top of that, imagine how many MORE homes in the North Tacoma area would go on the market.

Granted, Russell realistically won’t be going out of business, but there is a strong possibility that they will leave Tacoma. Why? Because a new building in Seattle just opened up as the result of WaMu shedding 3,400 employees. Speaking of which, even with the bailout, WaMu is firing 3,400 people. Luckily, these layoffs do not include layoffs to any of the WaMu branches. If the bailout never went through, you can imagine how many of those people would have lost their jobs also.

Q: Who cares? If a company fails it is probably because they suck and screwed up. Let them have what they deserve.
A: This is certainly a prevalent argument and I can certainly see the logic behind it. Why are we bailing out greedy corporate CEO’s for their mistakes? Sadly, it isn’t that simple. For every CEO out there that made bad decisions and deserve the boot, there are thousands of hard working people that will lose their jobs as a result of no one stepping in to help the situation. These hard working people have families to support and to a large degree; play a significant role in supporting our economy as a whole.

For instance, take a look at the current situation with the Big 3 Detroit auto makers (Ford, GM, and Chrysler). Right now they are asking for a combined total of $34 billion dollars to bail them out. If no one steps up to help (i.e. the Government, since there aren’t many people with $34 billion dollars lying around) they will move into bankruptcy.

It is estimated that 10% of all US employees are either directly employed by the auto industry, or work for one of their suppliers/dealers. Out of this 10%, the Big 3 employs roughly 20%, or 2% of the total US workforce. That’s about 2.5 million people. Look how bad things are with a 6% unemployment rate. Now imagine if that number jumped to 8% just because of the US auto industry.

Another report that I read estimated that the US auto industry accounts for 4% of our country’s GDP. On top of that, is the amount of consumption that the employees of the US auto industry account for. Like it or not, if the US auto industry goes under, expect this recession to go deeper and last even longer.

Note: If I was not trying to be a mature adult, I’d probably make a joke here.

Q: If they file chapter 11 bankruptcy they could still restructure and continue to operate…
A: This is true. Still, there would be a lot of layoffs. On top of this, who wants to buy a car from a company that just went into bankruptcy? I sure as hell wouldn’t. Unless there is government support, bankruptcy for the Big 3 = death.

Q: Let’s say they did disappear. Wouldn’t other car manufactures just take their place?
A: Yes, except these would most likely be foreign auto manufactures. Going back to the economic refresher, imports subtract from GDP, not add. Eventually, this could lead to additional US jobs if foreign auto makers decided to add plants in the US, however they are having enough problems of their own right now and new investments don’t seem likely.

Q: The WSJ’s headline today is “U.S. Job Losses are the Worst in 30 Years.” Your thoughts?
A: Ouch… according to the article 533,000 jobs were lost in November alone. That’s over double the population of Tacoma, and roughly the same number of people who live in the city of Seattle. Something needs to happen. And soon.

Q: What needs to happen? How do we get out of this recession?
A: The typical answers are to increase government spending (to make up for lower investment spending) or to enact monetary policy and lower interest rates as to encourage more investment spending. Here is the problem as I see it.

The country is already running a huge deficit. Recession = less tax revenue, which makes this deficit even larger. Throw on the war in Iraq and the bailout and we aren’t looking at a whole lot left (Of note, is that in the report by the WSJ today, the government was just about the only sector that added jobs recently).

As for monetary policy and interest rates, they are already extremely low and lowering them further probably won’t do much. So far, monetary policy, combined with the bailout, has only been able to do just enough to keep lending options open. Even with these options open, the outlook for our economy is so bleak that people are avoiding borrowing money like the plague (unless they already have the plague, in which case they are trying to borrow as much money as possible, except who wants to lend to people with the plague?).

Borrowing money is only really smart when you have a form of repayment that is certain. Many businesses have no idea what their revenues will be like in the future so they make the smart decision to avoid borrowing. On the other hand, borrowing money if you are about to go under isn’t such a bad idea, after all, what do you have to lose? Lending to someone like that however, is what put us here in the first place.

Q: Hold up. Are you saying that the government lending to the Big 3 auto makers is a bad idea? Flip-flop much?
A: It may sound like that, but in truth, none of the available options are really ideal. Looking at the Big 3 and their situation is getting back to this whole idea of “too big to fail.” Honestly, I don’t have all the information on what the proposals are for the Big 3. I’m just hopeful that if they are viable plans that have a good chance to succeed, that politics won’t get in the way of making them happen. If it’s the case that it is only delaying the inevitable, then I guess we might as well not delay it…

Q: Back to the “How do we get out of this” question…
A: Recap: Government spending and monetary policy, probably not going to work to well right now.

So what then? Well, another option (which we saw last year) is to give tax-rebates. In theory, this will encourage people to spend and consume more, thus stimulating the economy. This sounds great and all, and I’m definitely for receiving a $600 check in the mail, except my feeling are that most of this money wouldn’t go towards increasing consumption.

People who are struggling will most likely either save the money or put it towards paying down bills that are already past due. Neither of which, will increase consumption. At the same time, giving a tax-rebate might only hinder government spending even more.

What it comes down to (yet again) is this silly little thing called confidence. Companies won’t invest until they are confident of growth. The government won’t be handing out money until they are confident that it will help. People won’t spend until they are confident that they are confident that they will have a paycheck coming in the next week. Take away any once piece of this and it will cause a ripple effect.

No government help to the US auto makers? That will lead to people not being confident about their jobs, which will reduce their spending. This leads to companies that depend on those consumers to slow their growth and investments.

People not being confident that they will have their jobs next month? Again, this leads to reduced spending and slower growth of companies. Think a bailout will help the Big 3 if no one buys their cars? Probably not.

Companies unwilling to invest in order to grow? Unemployment will remain high. Make no mistake, we are in a mess here. Somewhere we need to find a little bit of confidence and eventually we might be able to grow on it and dig ourselves out of this hole. I think the hope is that our new President Elect, Barack Obama, will help bring this confidence.

Q: Let’s say you had $34 billion dollars lying around. What would you do?
A: The two options I see are save it, or spend it. When I say save it, I’m using the economic definition of save, i.e. invest it.

As the saying goes, “buy low, sell high.” Invest that cash and watch that money roll in… right? Not so fast. Here is the problem with that. Let’s say everyone does this. Instead of spending their money they just invest it all hoping to make a quick buck. Well, the companies that they invest in will see lower consumption as a result of everyone “saving” and that will lead to many not-so-great investments.

On the other, spending $34 billion dollars sounds pretty fun. I’m sure I could buy a lot of pretty sweet things with that amount of money, and at the same time I’d be helping the economy out by increasing consumption and investments. Great idea, except I’d much rather see my money grow, than diminish.

Ideally, everyone out there would spend half the money they have, and invest the other half. That way everyone would help and everyone would benefit. Obviously, this isn’t going to happen, nor am I actually suggesting that it should happen.

What I am suggesting is that everyone should spend their money and I should invest the $34 billion dollars that I don’t have and becoming a trillionaire. Obviously, I’d give some money back to all the chumps out there for helping make me rich.

Q: Seriously?
A: Seriously, I don’t know what the hell I’d do with $34 billion dollars. Maybe I’d buy up a large amount of land somewhere and try and make my own little utopia. Obviously, you all would be invited.

To be quite honest, I don’t even know what makes sense for bringing us out of this recession right now. As you can probably tell this entire blog, all I have is a bundle of thoughts about how things aren’t working like they should, but at the same time knowing that something needs to happen.

In all my ramblings I guess my best answer to these economic issues is confidence. Hopefully, that’s something Barack Obama will instill when he comes into office. At least, that’s why I voted for him…

p.s. Usually I try to do a through job of proof reading my blogs before I post them. This one was just to long and jumbled up that I decided to not put anymore time into it. My apologies.

-dunkie

Ronald Jenkees: Musical Genius

2008-12-04T20:08:00.000-08:00

Here you go Hoops. I've been working on an economic blog lately, but I haven't had the time to finish it up so this will have to keep you entertained until then...

If you read Bill Simmons (The Sports Guy) articles on ESPN, or listen to his podcasts, then you probably know who this is. If not, the guys name is Ronald Jenkees. His music is amazingly ridiculous. I usually don't buy CD's, but after watching a bunch of his YouTube videos I decided to bite the bullet to support the guy. Enjoy!

If you like what you see here you can find many more videos of him playing on YouTube. Just search "Ronald Jenkees" or follow the link to them here. Also, if you would like to support him his music is available on iTunes and his website. Word on the street is that he has a new album dropping this month...

"It's got a real dirty sound. Like a rusty steak knife, cutting through a well aged steak." -Ronald Jenkees

While I'm at it I might as well toss in a few music related side notes...

The first is that when I was put on hold today the song playing on the other end of the phone was a remake of the Cyndi Lauper song, Time after Time. Apparently some Disney star sings it. Fitting, I guess...

My second side-note is that two of my friends are playing their first gig down in Portland later this month. I had the pleasure of listening to them practice a while back and I'm stoked to see what they have come up with since then. Hopefully, that will include a name for their band...

-dunkie

Service Department

2008-11-24T07:59:00.000-08:00

I'm sitting in the dealership service department right now waiting for my car to undergo it's 12,000 mile check-up. I brought my laptop along as I figured it would be a good chance to write a little blog update to help make the time pass. So without further adu...

- The blue leather chair that I am sitting in is pretty comfy, except that it is so low to the ground that I feel like I'm a little kid. It's kind of like the effect you get when you sit in a chair where your feet can't touch the ground... except in reverse. I don't know if that makes sense, but if you have ever used the men's bathroom in the University of Redlands athletic center, you probably know what I am talking about.

- There is an older couple sitting across from me (I'd venture to guess they are 80+) and the old man is reading the newspaper to his wife. I get the sense that this is an everyday occurrence for them. For lack of a better description, they are extremely cute.

Note: The word cute will never be used on this blog again.

- A lady just sat down with her complementary cup of coffee and breakfast bar. Her attempts to open up the breakfast bar packaging quietly are failing miserably. Just open the damn package already.

- I watched 24: Redemption last night. It was a last minute decision as I wasn't sure if I wanted to devote the next 24 Monday nights to watching Jack Bauer yell at people. Then I remembered the amazing invention known as DVR.

- Another reason why I am choosing to watch this season's 24... My boss/dad definitely had "New 24 Season Starts" marked down on his calender. He is addicted. I haven't seen him so into a show since the X-Files. I look forward to dropping random Jack Bauer references into our conversations over the next few months.

"Jon... Jack Bauer is on line 1. He says it's urgent."

- There is a sign by the complementary coffee stand that says "This costs more to maintain than a BMW." Apparently it hasn't exceeded the 4 year/50,000 mile warranty yet.

- I ran for the first time in 3 weeks on Saturday. I am happy to report that my foot was pain free. Just in time for the 3 Turkey Bowls that I am playing in this week. Food and Football. What could be better?

- Can't think of anything else to write about right now... time for another cup of coffee.

- Okay. I'm back! Wait... this blog isn't in real time is it? Nevermind.

- I really want to sneak a picture of the old couple sitting across from me for the blog, except turning my macbook towards them isn't exactly subtle when they would be able to see themselves in the picture preview. Then again, the lady is now snoozing with her head on the arm of her chair and the old man is thoroughly engaged in his newspaper.

- Nevermind. My car just pulled up. Ugh... It looks clean. I forgot to tell them not to wash it. Last time they washed it they put about 1000 new swirl marks on my car. Hopefully they vacuumed.

Alright. Time to go to work.

-dunkie

Dismissed

2008-11-18T14:44:00.000-08:00

Back in August I received a speeding ticket for going 92mph in a speed zone that was less than half of that. Honestly, I deserved the ticket. If I was a better man I probably would have conceded that fact and just paid my $411 fine. Sadly, the prospect of being bent over by my car insurance wasn’t to appealing and I decided to go with a traffic lawyer to fight the ticket.

When I contacted my traffic lawyer I originally thought my ticket was for 72mph and not 92mph. At this point I was told that I was lucky that I wasn’t cited for reckless driving and that my chances of getting out of the ticket were slim.

A week later I received a phone call from my lawyer informing me that my ticket was actually for 92mph. So not only was I extremely lucky for not receiving a reckless, but I was lucky that I didn’t end up in jail that night. The only reasonable explanation for why I lucked out is that the officer probably had somewhere else to be (talk about being lucky). Needless to say, at this point my chances for having the ticket dismissed went from slim, to very “this is a complete shot in the dark” slim.

Worst case scenario, I was looking at a $411 fine, sky high insurance rates, and a second ticket on my record (I currently have 0, but if this one stood, a deferred ticket that I received a few months back would have been added back on. Best case scenario, I was looking at a $250 lawyer fee and the not-so-great feeling of knowing that I probably deserved the worst.

Well, as it turns out, I received a call from my traffic lawyer today informing me that my ticket was dismissed. While I am surprised and somewhat elated by this news, I still have that not-so-great feeling of knowing that I just dodged a whole round of bullets.

According to Albert Einstein,

“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

Respectfully, I find that I must disagree with this statement. Expecting to get off scott-free every time I decided to drive like a complete donkey is insanity. Knowing that one day I’ll probably be handed a “worst case scenario” is just the reality of some of my bad driving habits.

What’s really insane is that even knowing all of this, I’ll probably continue to speed. I’ll probably find some way to justify it to myself and even feel good about it from time to time…

Ugh… is this what alcoholics go through?

“I can handle my driving.”

“I’m not hurting anyone”

“It was just that one time I drove to fast (and got caught).”

I suppose it is…

Being good at driving fast is just about as awesome as the ability to take a large number of shots, down a beer-bong, or shot-gun a beer. It’s all great and fantastic until you wake-up the next morning in the hospital, having no recollection of the previous night, with nothing but your boxers and a pair of dress socks (that you got for free with your tuxedo rental) on. Not that this has ever happened to me before…

-donkey

RIP Curvy

2008-11-04T13:09:00.000-08:00

My poor Blackberry Curve is dieing. It keeps passing out on me and won't eat anything. I am guessing that it has something to do with the number of times that I dropped/submerged the poor thing.

On the bright side, the Blackberry Bold was just released for AT&T. I guess all that is left for me to do is to bury my Curvy mistress and choose between the Bold and the iPhone.

I'll probably end up going with the iPhone just because that is what all the cool kids have. Well, that and it's a lot cheaper than the new Blackberry.

RIP Curvy. I'm sorry that I abused you so much. Thank you for making me a better text message-er. You deserved a much better life than the one that I gave you.

-dunkie

Dear Great Pumpkin,

2008-11-04T12:51:00.000-08:00

- I didn’t make the 40 laps around CWA needed to run a marathon on Saturday. In short…

After 28 laps my thighs cramped up.
After 32 laps my joints couldn’t take the pressure from running on concrete anymore.
After 34 laps my walking was reduced to a pathetic waddle.
After 36 laps my body called it quits.

In total, I made it 23.5 miles before my body decided to stand up for itself and tell my brain to shut up.

While most of my body has returned to working order, I think I have a stress fracture in my right foot. Either way, I think it’s safe to say that I won’t be running on cement anytime soon.

Note: I should probably add a blog label for all the posts that involve me doing something stupid... ugh.

The last thing that I will say about trying to run a marathon is that my biggest regret isn’t that I wasn’t able to finish. It’s that I made the poor choice to wear cotton boxer briefs instead of spandex.

- I really enjoyed The Simpsons Halloween parody of It’s the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown. Come to think of it, I think I enjoy almost all things Peanuts related.

- Last Friday I went to watch the CWA Football Team take on the Life Christian Eagles. Long story short, the CWA Tarriers scored on a 4th and goal play from around the 3 yard line (with seconds left in the game) to give them the victory, 39-35.

My favorite part of the whole ending occurred during the timeout prior to the ensuing Tarrier TD. From the Life Christian huddle I heard one of the players yell:

“Just like last year, guys!” (Last year being the year that Life Christian stopped the Tarriers on a 4th and goal play from the 1 yard line to seal the win.)

Needless to say, those words would probably be burning a hole in my head if the Eagles had made the stop. Thankfully, they didn’t, and CWA came away with the victory. GO TARRIERS.

- I’m still uncertain on who I will vote for in the 2008 Presidential Election… which is today. Here is what I am certain of:

I, Dunkie, will support the next President of the United States of America, regardless of which nominee wins, until such time that he gives me a legitimate reason to lose all faith in his ability to make intelligent decisions that impact my life and the people I care about.

That’s about as far as I will go into politics here…

- My body is adjusting well to adding a Crossfit workout session in the morning. I think this is mostly due to the fact that I don't actually have to wake up an hour earlier due to daylight savings working in my favor.

- Safeway has extended their sale on Stompin’ Steakhouse Chili through the 11th. Exciting.

- Lastly, in honor of the Presidential Election and The Great Pumpkin, I leave you with this quote:

"I've learned there are three things you don't discuss with people: religion, politics and the Great Pumpkin." -Linus van Pelt, It's the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown

-dunkie

Peace Out O.H.C.

2008-10-30T22:41:00.001-07:00

The One Heart Cafe (aka my annoying neighbor) is moving out of the Merlino Arts Building. Words can not describe my excitement upon hearing this news.

It's not that I have anything against the people that frequent the cafe, or the cafe in general, it's just that I can hear everything that goes on there... from my room.

Needless to say, I will not miss the late night political discussions, crappy wifi, or "bring your own musical instrument nights" that have caused me headaches over the last 6 months.

Peace out OHC. I wish you the very best in your new location.

-dunkie

Marathon...

2008-10-30T20:03:00.000-07:00

Q: What's this about a marathon?

A: I'm going to run a marathon. I decided this at 10:57 am today.

Q: Okay... that's cool, I guess. When are you going to do it?

A: This Saturday.

Q: What? Are you serious? Shouldn't you train for a marathon first?

A: For the last 2 months I've been alternating between 3 mile jogs and sprint work 5 times a week. Today I ran 6.58 miles (1/4 a marathon) as a warm-up and I am confident that I can make it 26.2 miles. I plan on taking a rest day tomorrow and loading up on carbs for my run Saturday.

Q: Haha, right. Because 6.58 miles is just a hop, skip, and a jump from 26.2 miles.

A: That's exactly what I was thinking.

Q: So... did you just google "Marathon + Saturday + Tacoma" and find one to run in?

A: No. I'm going at this alone. I decided that I don't want to have to deal with traffic or distractions, so I'm going to run my marathon using the loop around CWA. It is .658 miles around and 40 laps will log me in at just over 26.2 miles.

Q: You do realize that you are going to miss some great football games, right?

A: DVR is a great thing... and I plan on being done in time to catch the Texas (No. 1) vs. Texas Tech (No. 7) game.

Q: This seems pretty random...

A: Sort of. I've randomly gone on long runs on a few occasions. The last time I attempted something like this I was slightly intoxicated and decided that I wanted to replicate a 22 mile walk I did while pledging. I left at 2am and by 7am I had eaten up 20 miles of pavement and couldn't take another step. Luckily, I had my phone on me and my roommate came to carry me home. Thanks Hoopie.

Q: Again with the fraternity references... you do realize that you aren't in college anymore, right?

A: Yeah, sorry...

Q: Forgiven. You only made it 20 miles last time. What makes you think that you will be able to do 26.2?

A: I'm in much better shape right now and I won't be intoxicated this time. Also, I'm planning ahead and making sure I eat properly the night before, as well as having some snacks to refuel along the way.

Q: Any predictions on how long it will take you, that is, assuming you finish?

A: When I ran 6.58 miles today I ran at just under a 10 minute pace. I felt fine afterwards and I feel like I can keep that pace for a good amount of time. I think 5 hours is a reasonable estimate, which would equate to roughly a 11:30 pace. Ideally, I'd like to come in at around 4 hours 30 minutes.

Q: What if you don't finish in under 5 hours?

A: My goal is to finish. If it takes me 10 hours and I have to walk half the time or stop for 3 hours, then so be it. 5 hours is just an estimate of how long I think it will take me.

Q: Walking half the time or taking a 3 hour rest stop would be pretty pathetic.

A: Agreed. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

Q: Rewind a second... *boo boop* Why are you doing this again?

A: Life has a way of piling up every once in a while and running a long distance will be a good chance for me to clear my head. I feel like I've placed a bunch of arbitrary barriers on myself and I think that running a marathon will help me break through them.

Q: That sounds... uhh, neat.

A: Thanks, me.

Q: Well, good luck in your marathon.

A: Don't you mean, "our" marathon.

Q: Shit.

A: Hahaha...

-dunkie

Random Thoughts...

2008-10-28T18:56:00.000-07:00

It usually takes me a while to organize my thoughts and write something down that is worth posting. Lately, I've been pretty exhausted with life and my brain hasn't had the energy to put anything together. As a result, I've decided to just post a bunch of thoughts without going into a whole lot of detail about any specific one.

In no particular order...

- Allowing the MLB Playoffs to be shown on TBS, which doesn't broadcast in HD, was an absolutely horrible idea. Bud, how did you let this happen?

- I received a speeding ticket a few months ago. The officer told me that he locked me in at 82 mph, but when he handed me the ticket it said 72 mph... nice guy right? Well, I found out last week that he wrote me the ticket for 92 mph and not 72 mph. Apparently I can't read numbers. Sadly, I don't think that is a valid argument to fight a ticket on...

- Haven't spilled any coffee on myself in over a week. It's the little victories in life that keep me going...

- I attended the Tacoma Symphony Orchestra's season opener at the Pantages Theater last weekend. The evenings theme was A Night in Old Russia and featured music from Rimsky-Korsakov, Rachmaninoff, and Tchaikovsky. This was probably my fifth time attending the symphony in the last two years and I'm finding that I actually enjoy it. Still, I doubt that I will be adding Mozart or Tchaikovsky to my ipod any time soon.

- Two weeks ago I was rooting for either a Red Sox vs. Dodgers or Rays vs. Phillies World Series matchup. In retrospect, I should have rooted harder for the Red Sox/Dodgers.

- Jamie Moyer's performance in game 3 of the World Series was nothing short of epic. I hope the Phillies win the World Series just so my inner Seattle Fan can live vicariously through him for an evening.

- I strained my left pectoral muscle last week. I've been trying to lift around it but that isn't working out so well. Today, I found out that it is a little worse than I thought/hoped and I can't even do pushups. It's looking like I'll have to give it 3-4 weeks of rest for it to heal properly. I'm pretty bummed about this.

- For those that are interested, Stompin' Steakhouse Chili is currently on sale at Safeway.

- The stock market was up 899 points today. I thought that was at least worth mentioning.

Note: Anything below a 500 point swing in the DJIA doesn't even make me blink anymore. I don't know if that is good or a bad thing.

- My new favorite song to work out to is Let it Rock by Kevin Rudolf (ft. Lil' Wayne). I've been listening to it on repeat for the last two weeks and I'm still not tired of it. Only 10 more weeks until it surpasses the Numb/Encore remix by Jay-Z & Linkin Park as my all-time favorite. Have I mentioned that I routinely listen to playlists that don't exceed 3 songs while working out? Is that weird?

- My new pet peeve is seeing police officers talking on their cell phones while driving in a marked vehicle. Seriously now...

- I realized last night that I have an odd habit of curling my wrists and putting pressure on them while I sleep. After Googling it I found out that this is a symptom of carpal tunnel syndrome. This probably isn't a good thing.

That's about it for now. Hopefully my brain will start functioning again and I'll be able to write something with some substance in the in the next few days. Until then... err nevermind. I've got nothin'.

-dunkie

The name is... Du-Mass

2008-10-22T12:40:00.000-07:00

Every day I walk over to the place next door and buy myself a 24oz cup of French Roast coffee. I then mosey back to my office and settle in for the day as I enjoy my morning coffee and read the Wall Street Journal.

About once a week, I somehow manage to spill my coffee. On a good week, I will be leaning forward and the desk will come to my rescue. On a bad week, my shirt becomes an embarrassing brown spotted mess.

Up until today, I had a few theories about why I kept spilling my coffee. They ranged from not securing the lid properly, to me just being a complete dumbass. As it turns out, it was more of the latter.

What I discovered this morning is that due to the height of a 24oz cup of coffee, the cup (which is made out of paper) is very susceptible to outside pressure when the coffee level drops below the midpoint. Therefore, holding the cup near the top causes the paper to flex, thus creating a small gap between the top of cup and the plastic lid. What results from this is the phenomenon known as the embarrassing brown spotted mess.

Note: Please do not confuse the "embarrassing brown spotted mess" with the "embarrassing brown spot." While both are brown and embarrassing, they are completely different phenomenons.

Warning: Both phenomenons should be avoided at all costs.

-dunkie

They took the bar...

2008-10-21T14:41:00.000-07:00

Last Friday marked the 3 year revocation anniversary of the Phi Sigma Tau Fraternity Charter by the University of Redlands. In the immortal words of Bluto,

"They took the bar. The whole ****ing bar." -Animal House

To commemorate this depressing day I had fully intended to revisit the events leading up to our extinction in the form of a blog tribute.

Sadly, when I attempted to access my Redlands.edu e-mail address to find some saved photos and reinstatement petition letters to use in my blog, I found that my e-mail had befallen the same fate as my fraternity. The University of Redlands had shut it down and it was no longer active. Attempts to revive my poor e-mail address were met with this reply:

Jeff,

There was a short time after the accounts were deactivated that we were able to reactivate them. However that time has expired and we are now unable to reactivate.

-Bruce E********

Work Order No.: 24685

To me, this is almost more depressing than losing the fraternity charter. At least with the fraternity I still have things such as my pledge book, fraternity letters, and random relics that were passed down to me by my big brother to hold onto. Not to mention the friends, brothers and lifelong lessons I learned while being in a fraternity. But as for my e-mail address, there is really no other way to describe this loss than straight up heartbreaking.

My Toshiba laptop that I had throughout college succumbed to the blue screen of death years ago, and with it went a treasure trove of college term papers and photos. While I took this loss pretty hard, I never had a printer in my room and would always e-mail papers to myself and print them out in the Fletcher-Jones Computer Center. Therefore, my Redlands.edu e-mail had essentially become a backup of every paper I ever wrote in college, as well as many other gems.

In order to commemorate the loss of my Redlands.edu e-mail, I’d like to read off a list of things that perished along with it, and say a few parting words about some of them.

Random Papers: From Government 101, to Comparative Literature, I will no longer be able to revisit countless papers from my four year tenure at the University of Redlands. While I probably wouldn’t even want claim to have written half of these papers, it would still be nice to be able to look back on how my writing style has developed/regressed over the years.

My Senior Capstone Paper: I spent countless hours throughout my senior year on this paper… ok, that’s kind of a lie. I wrote the paper in about a week at the end of my first semester, and never turned in a rough draft which was 30% of my grade. As a result I failed the course and had to repeat my capstone class second semester and revise the paper. I think the second time around I spent about one night editing the paper and ended up with a B+ in the class. Thanks Professor Pedace!

Viagra offers: I’m pretty sure I had over a thousand offers for Viagra sitting in my spam box. Luckily, I have about 366 of the same offers in my work spam box to browse through should I ever feel the need to reminisce.

Pledging photos: Granted that it may be in the best interest of my pledge class that these pictures have been lost forever due to their somewhat compromising nature; these were always good for a few laughs and will be greatly missed. Breakdown!

Phi Tau Petition Letter: This may be The Heart of the Ocean of my lost e-mail collection (wow… that’s two Titanic references on my blog now). After losing the fraternity charter for the second (and final) time during my four year tenure at the University of Redlands, I wrote this letter as President of the Fraternity in an attempt to regain our charter. Included with it was a petition that contained signatures from over 500 students that had been collected in support of the letter.

It is definitely one of more memorable things that I ever wrote in college and while it ended up being a failure (as is evident by the fact that the Phi Sigma Tau Fraternity is not recognized as an active fraternity at the University of Redlands), I am still proud of the attempt and the contents of the letter.

As for The Heart of the Ocean reference, there is a small chance that I saved a paper copy of these somewhere in one of the fraternity notebooks that I have packed away at my parents house. I’ll keep my fingers crossed…

Silly e-mails from Mom: My mom used to forward me silly e-mails that pretty much feel into the category of spam. Usually these consisted of some goofy animation bouncing up and down on my screen. While these were always somewhat annoying, they were usually good a small chuckle. Luckily, much like the Viagra adds, she still sends these kinds of e-mails to my work e-mail… and I totally just talked about my mom and Viagra in the same sentence. I am going to go shoot myself right now.

PokerRoom.com Account: I used to work in The Fletcher-Jones Computer Center as part of my work study. Basically, I would sit there for 5-10 hours a week doing homework, playing online poker, and occasionally answering a question about how to print something.

My pokerroom.com account still has about $20 on it, but since I can’t remember the login or password, and I can’t request that they send me a new password since my account was linked to my Redlands.edu e-mail, I’m pretty much up the creek on this one. RIP Andrew Jackson…

Facebook: While I haven’t yet lost my Facebook account, it is certainly tied to my Redlands.edu e-mail. Will this cause my Facebook account to eventually go inactive? Only time will tell…

In retrospect, assuming that I can locate the paper copy of the PST petition letter and my Facebook account doesn’t decide to vanish, losing my Redlands.edu email isn’t so bad. Maybe it just pisses me off that a private University with a $100 million dollar endowment can afford to send me requests for donations every month, yet decides that it is much too expensive to keep my poor e-mail active.

On second thought, that’s exactly what it is. F-U Redlands. You can take your Och Tamale and shove it up your Gazump. Until I get my e-mail and/or fraternity charter back I am officially going to boycott sending you any of the donations that I wasn’t planning on making in the first place. Take that Redlands, Rah, Rah, Redlands!

-dunkie

The Lost Kids of Willows.

2008-10-16T10:32:00.000-07:00

If you have 15 minutes to spare in your day, I highly recommend that you take the time to read "The Lost Kids of Willows" on ESPN.com.

I don't even want to attempt to summarize it, as I don't believe my words would do the story justice. Suffice to say, it is a very well written article and will most likely bring tears to your eyes.

-dunkie

The Day After Tomorrow...

2008-10-11T11:55:00.000-07:00

Markets around the globe, from Japan to Germany, fell dramatically this week. While Iceland was going about nationalizing it's largest bank and suspending all trading in their stock market, Russia was busy formulating a bailout plan of their own. Faced with the possibility of the global credit markets coming to a standstill, central banks around the world simultaneously lowered their interest rates in an attempt to provide emergency relief.

At home, the DJIA fell over 18% and the FDIC added two small banks located in the midwest to their growing list of bank failures. Meanwhile, the SEC continued investigations into possible fraud by large financial institutions, and even positive earnings reports for a small number of companies was met with trepidation by investors.

Q: I get it already. How long until the world explodes/implodes?

A: While it is pretty certain that the world is not about to end, we are certainty looking at a global climate change in the financial markets. Speaking of which...

I almost feel as if I'm watching the movie The Day After Tomorrow right now. First, we had a number of major (financial) disasters across the United States. Then, almost overnight, we found ourselves engulfed in not only a countrywide (no pun intended) crisis, but a worldwide ice age (frozen credit markets) as well. Now, we are witnessing unprecedented co-operation with countries around the world to try and preserve as many lives (financial markets) as possible.

To complete the story line, I'm sure there is some math genius out there that has been accepted to an Ivy League school, but due to the frozen credit markets, is unable to obtain the student loans he needs to pay for tuition. As a result, he is being forced to live in the New York Public library while his dad searches for a way to send him to college. Throw in a romantic subplot just for good measure and I'm certain that this could turn into a successful made for TV movie that rivals likes of The Odyssey, Sabrina: The Teenage Witch, and The Stand.

Q: First the Titanic and now The Day After Tomorrow. What's next?

A: Well, the presidential elections are coming up... how about Dumb and Dumber?

Q: Really now?

A: Just kidding...

Q: Right.

A: Anyways...

Q: Okay, moving on. Have we bottomed out yet?

A: What we saw on Friday of last week was that when the DJIA briefly dropped below 8,000 investors seemed to view that as a bottoming out point and the index stayed above that point for the rest of the day.

If the drops in the stock market is the result of a lack of investor confidence, it is very hard to imagine that confidence can go any lower right now. That could indicate that 8,000 is indeed the bottoming out point. Then again, it might not be...

Q: Assuming this is the bottom?

A: We could see investors start coming back into the market, but it is highly doubtful that the markets will recover to anywhere near the levels we saw a year ago when the DJIA topped out just above 14,000. Best case scenario, we are probably looking around 10,000 over the next year.

Q: Worse case scenario?

A: We continue to drop...

Q: Those don't seem like very great alternatives. Why not stay out of the market?

A: Agreed, those are not great alternatives. Still, that doesn't necessarily mean that you should not continue to follow an existing long-term investment strategy if you are already invested.

What we do know, is that markets recover. If you examine all of the recessions that the US went through over the last 100 years, most of them recovered to the same level they were at prior to the recession in under 12 months. There were a few cases where it took longer than this, but in all cases, the markets recovered eventually.

To take a slightly different perspective, there are a few ways you can loose money right now. One is if you own stock in a company that goes under, such as Washington Mutual. If this happens, you are left with nothing and have no chance of recouping your losses.

A second way you can lose money is if you have money in a money market mutual fund that is unable to hold it's value of $1 per share. If this is the case you might lose some of your investment, but not all of it.

Third, if your bank fails and you have depository accounts that exceed the $250,000 insurance (per account) provided by the FDIC, you could lose any amount that you hold above that level.

Lastly, you can lose money if you sell an investment at a loss. By doing so you eliminate the possibility of the investment recovering it's value.

To sum this up, if you have a long-term investment strategy that is well diversified, you do your research on any money market funds you are in, don't keep over $250,000 in cash in any one depository account, and don't sell everything in a panic to cut your losses, you will eventually recover from this.

Q: Is that it?

A: Of course there are some cases in which you may want to sell things...

1) To harvest losses in order to offset future gains and avoid paying capital gains taxes.

2) Rebalance a portfolio to target allocations in order to better reposition your portfolio.

3) If your current investment strategy is not one that suits your long-term goals and/or risk tolerance. In this case you may need to change your target asset allocations. Still, this isn't necessarily a great time to make a change in an investment strategy...

Also, if you are not currently invested and have a large amount of cash sitting around, the bottom is never a bad time to buy... that is, if you think we have reached the bottom.

Q: Thanks for the...

A: Did I mention that this should not be taken as financial advice and you should consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions?

-dunkie

Economic Crisis: Which Simpsons Character are You?

2008-10-07T13:44:00.000-07:00

I think this is somewhat self-explanatory... Enjoy!

Bart Simpson - While it is obvious to you that something bad is going on, you will most likely never see the direct effects of this economic downturn. If someone talks to you about the current state of the economy, your reply will probably be something along the lines of “Bummer, dude.”

Lisa Simpson - You are concerned about the current state of the economy and work hard to educate yourself about what is going on. Now is not the time to… “AHHHHHHHH… BART!!!” As you were saying, now is not the time to panic.

Marge Simpson - You keep your money in a cookie jar and try not to spend much. The economy worries you and you are starting to think that finding a job would not be a bad idea… Perhaps the police department is hiring?

Homer Simpson - You have no idea why everyone is so worried about the US economy. The only question that pops into your head when someone mentions the stock market is “what kind of food you can buy there?"

Maggie Simpson - You don't speak, much less read. Chances are that you are not this character...

Grampa Simspon - You are panicked and depressed. No one will explain to you what is really going on. Your assumption is that you are about to relive the Great Depression and that you will be forced to move in with your son.

Apu Nahasapeemapetilon - In times like these, business isn’t great. Lucky for you, "you are most happily married and have eight amazing children..." all of which you are still responsible for feeding. While life is stressful, you remain cheerful and continue to go about your job. "Thank you, come again!"

Mr. Burns - A month ago you ordered Smithers to sell everything. Now, you are sitting on a hoard of cash, watching the market fall, and muttering yourself "Excellent..." The only question you have is “when will be the right time to buy back into the US economy?”

Moe Szylak - You own your own business and have two main concerns. That Duffman will stop delivering the beer you need to serve your customers and that your customers (Barney, Homer, Lenny, Carl, ect...) will run out of money to pay for… hold on a second, phone call. "Someone’s looking for Mike Rotch. Has anyone seen MIKE ROTCH?"

Barney Gumble - The economy is tanking. The only question on your mind is “What does this mean for beer prices?” Despite the fact that you probably have nothing invested in the stock market, you decide to turn towards drinking to deal with the current state of things. Chances are that you are still in college and never make it to your Friday morning classes. That, or you are an alcoholic and currently going nowhere with your life. Let's hope you're the first...

Ned Flanders - Times like these are testing, but your faith in God (and the US economy) remains steadfast. If ever you need re-assurance, you can always call Reverend Lovejoy...

Reverend Lovejoy - Once a faithful believer in the US economy, you are now convinced that the world is about to end. The wrath of God is upon us. Run for the hills.

Milhouse Van Houten - You are extremely nearsighted and cannot see beyond the current economic crisis. Needless to say, your current state is one of complete panic.

Nelson Muntz - You aren't invested in the stock market and are currently laughing/pointing your finger at the people who are. However, chances are that you aren't saving money and in reality, the joke is on you.

Ralph Wiggum - Phrases such as “It tastes like burning!” and “I found a moon rock in my nose!” are the norm for you. However stupid people may think you are, even you realize that these are not good times for the US economy. You have dreams of one day becoming the President of the United States of America...

Principal Seymour Skinner - You job is funded by the US Government. An economic crisis only means one thing... your funding is about to take another hit. Things were much simpler back in Vietnam...

Krusty the Clown - The current state of the US economy makes you miserable, and every time you look at the DJIA, it only gets worse. Still, you manage to continue on with your life, relying on a large number of cigarettes to get you through your day.

Otto Mann - Between drugs, sleeping in strange places, and driving a school bus, you are pretty used to crashing. The current stock market crash is no different.

Comic Book Guy - According to you this is the "Worst crash ever." Luckily, all of your money is invested in your vast comic book collection.

Chief Wiggum - You eat your coffee and donut every morning and remain completely ignorant to what is going on in the US economy. If something goes wrong, it isn't your fault. This crisis won't affect you, unless of course… Springfield has to cut the budget and you lose your job.

Note: You will only realize this last part a month after being laid off.

Mayor Quimby - Straight from Wikipedia... you are "a slick, opportunistic politician whose chief priorities seem to be keeping [yourself] in office, womanizing, and various forms of corruption." There is a significant chance that you are also a member of the United States Congress and are up for re-election in a month.

Santa's Little Helper - All you do is eat, sleep, poop, and chew things. The global economy, much less the US economy, is of no concern to you.

Blinky - You have three eyes... and you're a fish. You are the byproduct of this whole economic mess. You are completely innocent when it comes to everything.

Groundskeeper Willie - You're angry. You're angry at everyone from the the mortgage borrowers to the US government. This mess wouldn't have happened if Mel Gibson were President.

Troy McClure - You may remember yourself from such educational firms as "How to get Rich Quick" and "Money Money Money." Much like the economy, your career is going through somewhat of a downtown...

Martin Prince - The stereotypical nerd, you are extremely brilliant. You will come out of this economic crisis extremely rich. Watch out for Nelson... you are his personal retirement fund.

Hans Moleman - You are heavily invested in the US financial sector and had an extremely large holding in Washington Mutual. This is not your lucky day, month, or year...

Dr. Hibbert - *Chuckle* You believe that the cure for this economic crisis is to simply remove the troubled mortgage backed securities from the market in the form of a $700 billion bailout by the US Government. *Chuckle*

-dunkie

...a.k.a. Dr. Lisa Hibbert Simpson

Idiot.

2008-10-06T18:56:00.000-07:00

One would think, that after cooking box upon box of pasta shells, night after night...

That one would quickly learn to beware of taste testing right side up pasta shells...

Least they are still filled with large amounts of boiling hot (and painful) water...

One would think.

Unless of course...

You are an idiot.

Whose name is...

-dunkie

Buy or Sell: The Perfect Analogy

2008-10-06T13:17:00.001-07:00

The First Word:

Once or twice a week I like to take a late lunch break and head over to my parents house to eat and watch my favorite sports talk show, Around the Horn (no, I don't still live with my parents and yes, I am 24 years old and my mom still keeps my favorite lunch foods stocked for me… thanks Suzie). Anyways, for those of you who have never watched the show, the format is basically this:

Tony Reali, the show’s host, sits at a desk in front of four large screens. Each screen has a panelist that writes a sports column for one of the many newspapers around the US. The show is split into rounds in which the four columnists debate various sports topics of the day and are awarded (or penalized) points based on their arguments. After each round the panelist with the lowest point score is cut, and by the end of the show the last man (or woman) standing is awarded 30 seconds of facetime in which to talk about whatever he or she likes.

One of the show’s rounds is called Buy or Sell. In this segment Tony Reali reads off various sports news headlines from around the country and each panelist is given a chance to buy (agree) or sell (disagree) the headline. The columnist’s reasons for buying or selling a headline range from asinine, to well thought-out arguments. In the end, the scoring is completely subjective, and it is up to Reali whether or not to award points.

Buy or Sell:

Everyday there are dozens of headlines in the news about which way the US economy is going, or what company is about to make it or break it. From an investment standpoint, you can literally choose to buy or sell each headline if you like. In the investment world this is considered active portfolio management, and each columnist is an active manager trying to beat the market.

Much like the show, less than 1 out of every 4 managers who actively buys and sells headlines will beat the market. On top of that, chances are that the same manager won’t outperform the market year after year. While you can certainly watch the show and always root for the same columnist to win every day, you are essentially "putting all of your chips in one basket” and you will live and die on that columnist’s performance.

On the flip side, you can choose to watch Around the Horn because you think it is a good show and believe that it provides some value to your afternoon. While you might agree or disagree with each of the columnist’s opinions, they don’t change the fact that you enjoy the show and will continue to watch day after day. In the investment world this is equivalent to passive portfolio management. Although the performance of each show many vary, you remain confident in what the show has to offer.

1st Cut - Out of Bounds:

If I haven’t completely lost you yet, hopefully you are now thinking to yourself “okay, so how should I watch the show to get the most out of it (i.e. which is better, active or passive portfolio management)?" Short of giving out any investment advice (this is my non-disclaimer, you know, since I’m not giving out any advice)...

Watch the show because you like it and because you think it is good. If you come to the conclusion that out of the 4 panelists, you value the opinions of two of them and you think the other two are complete idiots, then start watching the show not only because you like it, but because you like two of the columnists.

If you do that, then for the most part you will ride the performance of the show. If it is a good show like you think it is, you will reap the benefits in the long run.

As for the part of you that watches the show in order to root for the two columnists that seem to actually know what they are talking about... If they collectively win more than the other two, than you will be ahead of the game in that regard. If not, at least there is still a large part of you that enjoys the show.

2nd Cut - Showdown:

To translate into english/investment talk (again, short of giving out any investment advice)...

A typical investment portfolio is made up of multiple asset classes. Most often, managers are chosen to to manage one specific asset class. If you know that one active manager will always outperform the market index for an asset class, then it would make sense to put all of your money there. Sadly, there is no way to determine this with absolutely certainly. As a result, a logical decision is to pick multiple active managers that you feel are better than the rest.

Still, this situation exposes you to the risk that both of these managers might make the same bad bets and under perform the market. In order to combat this, by allocating a portion of your portfolio to passive management, you ensure that some of your portfolio will follow the performance of the asset class.

By combining these two investment management philosophies, you are able to lower your exposure to risk through the passively managed portion of your portfolio, and still benefit from the possibility that the actively managed portion will outperform the market.

Facetime:

If this entire post is still confusing, you can try buying a few boxes of crackerjacks in hopes that they still put decoder rings in them or post a comment and I’ll try to clarify things as best I can. Chances are however, that I have also confused myself in an attempt to make this analogy work and I’ll just pretend to have never seen your comment...

Also, you can always just chalk me up as some idiot columnist who doesn’t know what he is talking about. Either way, I hope you continue to watch the show.

Goodbye:

"We're on a 23 ½ hour break!"

*Paper Toss*

-dunkie

p.s. you know that you've made a great analogy when you have to spend an equal amount of time explaining your analogy using non-analogies... good job me.

Emergency Titanic Stabilization Act of 2008

2008-10-03T14:40:00.000-07:00

Earlier this afternoon the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 passed through the House (263-171) and was signed into law by G-Dub shortly after. While there are many provisions within the 450 page bill that are aimed to help stabilize the economy (I'd like to think so at least...), I'd like to focus mainly on topics relating directly to the $700 billion dollar bailout provisions in the bill.

Q: The bailout passed.... now what?

A: There is still a significant amount of work done. The Treasury and Federal Reserve have been given the tools and authority they need to start tackling this economic crisis head on. While we know that the $700 billion will go towards removing the mortgage backed securities from the market, it is still to be seen how exactly this process will take place, and how the securities will be priced when the government purchases them.

Q: Isn't all of that included in the bill?

A: Not quite. The bill set guidelines, much like a manager delegates a task to an employee, but at the same time gives them boundaries to work within. In comparison, this is opposed to having your boss micromanage everything you do, when in fact he is a complete moron who has no clue what is going on.

Q: You said previously that passing the bailout would instill confidence back into the economy, yet today the DJIA fell 157.47 points...

A: Part of this is due to questions that investors still have about how the Treasury and Fed will go about buying/pricing the mortgage backed securities in the market. When those questions are answered in the coming weeks investors should finally start to exhale.

The other part of this is that over the last few weeks the main economic focus has been the bailout, and people have somewhat forgotten the other economic indicators that, across the board, are in the red right now.

While many of these poorly performing economic indicators can be traced back to the US financial crisis, many have reached the point where they have become so significant that going back and removing the mortgage backed securities from the equation won't just fix them overnight.

Q: Could you give an example of an economic indicator?

A: Unemployment is a big one. In September alone, over 159,000 jobs were lost in the US due to business trying to cut back on expenses and tighten their belts.

If you follow the footsteps... the mortgage backed security fiasco resulted in bank failures, which caused lending to slow down, meaning businesses found it harder to borrow and consumers were finding it more difficult to buy things on credit. This chain of events led to many businesses not reaching their revenue targets, causing them to lay people off.

Q: When is the Economy going to start moving forward again?

A: It could take a while. In the example above, even if all of the mortgage backed securities were removed from the equation overnight, the people who lost their jobs due to the economic slowdown wouldn't just magically be rehired at the snap of a finger.

Removing the mortgage backed securities from the situation will help stabilize many financial institutions. Slowly, banks will then start to lend money again, and as confidence improves, consumers will start to feel more comfortable borrowing money to buy things. Eventually, with consumer spending increasing, business will start to hit their revenue goals and they will start to grow. In order to do so, they will need to borrow money and hire more employees. Those people, who now have jobs, will then spend then their money and the whole cycle will continue, eventually putting our economy back on the growth track.

Q: Oh, so it's like a domino effect and the government buying the mortgage backed securities is just the first of many dominoes. Right?

A: Kinda... except that in the Economic World, gravity does not cause things to fall at 9.8 meters/second². Instead, things in the Economic World fall at 9.8 meters/month².

Disclaimer: All other applications relating to gravity are the same in the Economic World as they are on planet Earth.

Q: So... are you saying that it will just take a few months to get the Economy back to where it was a year ago?

A: Not really. How about this... Imagine that the economy is large seagoing vessel. For fun, lets just call it the Titanic. Also, lets rename mortgage backed securities icebergs, mainly because I'm tired of typing out mortgage backed securities so many times.

One day the Titanic is cruising along when suddenly it hits an iceberg. This puts a huge hole in the Titanic and it starts to sink. Luckily, the Coast Guard (i.e. US Government) is in the area and is able to come to the Titanic's aid in the form of 700 billion mini pumps to help bailout the water that is pouring into the ship and causing it to sink.

Seeing as how there are only a handful of people who know how to setup the mini pumps, they can only turn on 50 billion pumps every hour. As a result, the Titanic continues to sink, even though water is being pumped out.

Eventually, enough pumps will be turned on to a point where the Titanic will stop sinking, and the Titanic will start to float again. At that point, the hole in ships hull will be patched up, the mini pumps can be returned, and the Titanic can continue on its merry way.

Q: Ok, I think I get your drift.

A: Good, because I don't think I have the energy to explain...

Q: Wait a second... what happens to the people on this imaginary vessel called the Titanic?

A: ...zzz...ZZZ...zzz...

-dunkie

Charmin Ultra Soft

2008-10-02T19:52:00.000-07:00

Dear Charmin,

Knowing that I was running low on your ultra soft goodness, I decided to stop by the local Thriftway and pick some up on my way home from working out. After locating the toilet paper isle, I found the 12 pack of Charmin Ultra Soft big rolls that I was looking for and tried to stuff it into my red handcart. To my dismay, I found that in all of your infinite softness, you decided to package the 12 pack in a 3x4 fashion, rather than go with a 2 deep 2x3. In other words, your 12 pack of big rolls doesn't fit in a shopping basket.

After walking up and down a few isles I remembered why I never shop at the Stadium Thriftway. They never have anything I need, except for the awkwardly shaped package of Charmin Ultra Soft that was already under my arm.

Giving up on finding anything else that I needed, I decided that looking like that guy that is on an emergency toilet paper run wasn't so bad, and I went to check out. While paying, I quickly realized that the cashier was making no attempt whatsoever to put the toilet paper in a bag. Terrific... this now meant that I had to walk out of the store with nothing but my large, awkwardly shaped package of Charmin Ultra Soft that didn't fit in a basket, or a bag.

Let me just say that walking out of a store with, and only with, a large package of toilet paper is pretty damn awkward and embarrassing. There are probably other things that are much more embarrassing to purchase at the supermarket, but at least they fit in a freaking bag.

Seriously Charmin, is there any reason why you decided on the 3x4 rather than a 2 deep 2x3? In large quantities they would stack the same, wouldn't they? Please figure this out or I may be forced to discontinue my usage of your amazing toilet paper to avoid these embarrassing situations in the future.

Sincerely,

-dunkie

Just another day by the pool...

2008-10-02T13:28:00.000-07:00

The University of Redlands, a private liberal arts and sciences university located in the beauty of sunny suburban Redlands, has a total enrollment of roughly 4,500 students (graduate and undergraduate). According to the U of R website, the operating budget for University exceeds $100 million annually.

Imagine that you are in charge of that $100 million. Aside from creating a budget, your responsibilities include a) putting the money in a safe spot and b) making sure the Universities bills are paid on time (i.e. salaries, utilities, taxes, ect...)

After looking at all of your options, you decide that storing this money at a bank would be much more secure than stacking $100 bills in your office safe. Responsibility a), check!

As for your second task, well that is easy. The bank you chose also has automatic bill pay. Man, this job is a cinch. Responsibility b), check!

Being the smart individual that you are, you know that the $100 million that you put in the bank is earning interest. Let's say that interest rate is set at 4%. Using your superior math skills, you calculate that you are making $4 million in interest every year. Sweet! They should really pay you more for this job...

One day, you find yourself bored at work and decide to take a break from Facebooking your BFF. You update your status to "...is stackin' chedda" and start looking into how you can earn more than 4% on the $100 million you are responsible for, while still upholding your two responsibilities (i.e. keeping the money safe, and keeping it liquid).

First, you think about investing it all in Google. After all, everyone uses Google and they are growing much faster than 4% a year... maybe even 10, or 20%! Thinking back on those economic classes you took your freshman year, you vaguely recall that the "promise" of higher return is the always the result of taking more risk. Smartly, you decide that risking the $100 million dollars that is needed to keep the University running would probably get you fired, and you certainly don't want to have to find a job where you wouldn't be able to Facebook all day. Scratch that idea.

Next, you think about buying some bonds. Bonds are currently earning 5% and are AAA rated, so they are pretty safe. Sadly, after doing some Wikipedia research, you realize that bonds aren't very liquid and you wouldn't have access to the cash you need to keep the University doors open. Damn... there goes your plan to spend that additional million dollars on an Olympic high dive platform for the pool.

While pondering what option to consider next, you get a phone call from your banker/former college roommate...

"Hey, I saw your Facebook status and hear you are looking to earn a slightly higher return on all that cash you have sitting here, while still keeping it safe and liquid. I have the perfect solution for you, it's called The Short Term Fund."

"Sweet. How does that work?"

"Basically, it's a fund that is made up of 80% commercial paper and 20% of this other stuff that will help earn a slightly higher return. It is just like cash and is very liquid. You just have to call me up and I can sell whatever amount you need from the fund and have the money to you the next day. All that and you earn a 4.5% return on it."

"Oh, so it's just like a money market fund?"

"Yeah, something like that..."

"Sweet! Let's move all $100 million over into The Short Term Fund. I'll give you a call every month or so and you can transfer the cash over that the University needs to pay salaries and stuff."

"Ok. Talk to you then. Holler at playa!"

"Peace out, cub scout."

Man, you think to yourself, you are indeed a genius. No wonder the University hired you. You just banked an additional $500,000 for the University.

Feeling like you are on top of the world, you decide to skip out of work early and go hang by the University of Redlands outdoor pool. Obviously, you are there to enjoy the sun after a hard day's work, and not scope out all of the hot freshmen co-eds... err students. Putting on your shades, you start to draw up plans in your head for a new $500,000 outdoor hot tub, and wonder how many co-eds could fit in such a facility at one time, as you drift off to sleep in the warm so-cal sun...

A month goes by and it is time to pay bills. Leaning back in your chair, you press the speed dial button for your banker and wait for him to pick up...

"Uhhh... hello?"

"Hey, I need you to free up $10 millie from The Short Term Fund so I can pay these bills.

"Umm... I can't exactly do that... the fund has been frozen."

"FROZEN?!?! WTF DOES THAT MEAN YOU @!$#%^"

"It turns out that the other 20% of the fund was invested in mortgage backed securities, and when people found that out, they started selling out of the fund. Since we didn't want the fund to close we had to freeze the fund. Don't worry, the University will get their money back, but it might take a while..."

"What the hell are we supposed to do until then? The University needs that cash now to pay their bills."

"Umm... well YOU might want to start looking for another job..."

"Go F*** yourself."

"Haha ok... we still on for the pool this afternoon?

"Yeah, but you better bring the booze."

Back to reality... Over 1,000 colleges and private schools are currently dealing with this sort of problem due to a freeze on over $9.3 billion that is held in The Short Term Fund (which is managed by CommonFund, for which Wachovia served as trustee). This is one of the many ways in which the crisis in the US economy is starting to trickle down to the point where it effects more than just the people that are directly involved. The bailout package would remove the mortgage backed securities from the market, and eliminate the underlying issue that causes problems such as this. In the words of Forest Gump...

"That's all I have to say about that."

Ok, I lied... one more thing I need to mention. I don't know if the University of Redlands actually uses this fund, and I was unable to find a list of which Universities do. Also, for sake of understanding, this example has been simplified to some degree. Obviously, the University of Redlands pool has more than just freshmen hotties hanging out there...

-dunkie

Don't Drop the Soap...

2008-10-01T09:43:00.000-07:00

Lots of things to do today so I am going to try and make this update on the bailout quick...

- It is expected that the Senate will later vote on a revised version of the bailout bill.

- The new bill has been revised in two main ways:

1) Increase FDIC deposit insurance from $100,000 to $250,000.
2) Authorizes the FDIC to borrow as much money as needed from the Treasury for one year.

- The DJIA is currently trading at -26.36 (i.e. investors are waiting for more information on whether or not the bill will pass).

- Obama and McCain have both come out in support of the changes.

Bailout Revisions...

In regards to raising the FDIC deposit insurance, that is great. It will increase consumer confidence and help small banks stay in business as depositors won't run to larger banks in such large herds.

As far as authorizing the FDIC access to unlimited Treasury funds in the case that banks continue to fail...

The current $30 billion authorization that the FDIC has access to is basically a pre-approved loan. If they needed more than that, they would get it, although it would have to be approved by congress most likely. In taking off the limit for one year, all that changes is that instead of making them go through an approval process down the line, we are just increasing the limit of the pre-approved loan.

And now for some quick Q & A...

Q: Will these revisions be enough for the bailout to pass?
A: I really, really, hope so.

Q: Will these revisions do any good?
A: Yes. By increasing consumer confidence and increasing coverage of depository accounts from $100,000 to $250,000.

Q: I don't have $250,000, let alone $100,000...
A: Either do I, but hey, at least we can all walk a bit taller now!

Q: Will these revisions address the concerns that opponents of the bailout have?
A: Not really, unless we are talking about...

Q: Will these revisions help current House members seek re-election?
A: Yes.

Q: What will happen if this bill fails yet again?
A: The United States economy is collectively holding a big bar of soap right now. If something doesn't happen soon, we are eventually going to drop that bar of soap. While we might survive, it won't be pretty, and the effects will be with us for a long, long time...

Update: The bill has gone from 2 pages in length, to 110 pages over the weekend, and now stands at 451 pages. I almost don't even want to know what else has been snuck in there. Amazing...

-dunkie

Back in the High Life Again

2008-09-30T18:56:00.000-07:00

It only took him 11 years, but Junior is back playing in October. Thanks in part to a Jim Thome home run and this play by The Kid, the Chicago White Sox defeated the Minnesota Twins, 1-0, in a single game playoff to determine the 2008 AL Central Champion.

The White Sox will now move on to face the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL Divisional Series Playoffs.

Is it too early to hope for a Crosstown Classic... a Expressway Series... a Windy City Showdown... White Sox vs. Cubs... The Kid vs. Sweet Lou...? Ehh, maybe it's just a little too soon to be punching that ticket. Still, as Andy Dufresne once wrote in a letter to his friend Red,

"Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things..." -The Shawshank Redemption

So maybe I'll just cross my fingers and hope for the best anyways. As for you Kid, you just keep playing your heart out and always remember, REFUSE TO LOSE...

-dunkie

Behavioral Finance, Confidence, and the Bailout...

2008-09-30T11:33:00.000-07:00

Behavioral finance is the study of social, cognitive, and emotional factors in order to better understand/explain stock market anomalies. Some theories that exist in behavior finance include; the media effect, herding instinct, and market psychology. For the most part, these theories are somewhat self-explanatory, but if you are interested in learning a little bit more about them, it is readily available here.

What we are currently seeing in the US economy is the direct result of some of these theories in behavior finance. To better explain this, let's examine the closing values of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) over the last week, as well as what headlines dominated the news.

Monday, September 22, 2008 - 11,015.69
Lawmakers Battle Over Rescue Plan -WSJ
New world on Wall Street -CNN

Tuesday, September 23, 2008 - 10,854.17 (-161.52)
Doubts on Rescue Plan Spur Fall In Dollar, Leap for Oil -WSJ
Bailouts will lead to rough economic ride -CNN

Wednesday, September 24, 2008 - 10,825.17 (-29)
Rescue Plan Stirs Calls for Deeper Regulation -WSJ

Thursday, September 25, 2008 - 11,022.06 (+196.89)
Bailout Pact Gains Momentum Amid Push for Tough Controls -WSJ
Dollar higher on bailout hope -CNN

Friday, September 26, 2008 - 11,143.13 (+121.07)
Bailout Negotiations in Disarray -WSJ
Dollar mixed on bailout strife -CNN

Monday, September 29, 2008 - 10,365.45 (-777.68)
'No' vote on Bailout Hammers Stocks -WSJ
No Love for Bailout -CNN
U.S. Stocks Battered As House Rejects Bailout -FOX
Bailout failure throws banks into disarray -MSNBC

Tuesday, September 30, 2008 - 10,850.66 (+485.21)
Hope for New Plan Rallies Stocks -WSJ
Senate: Stop 'blame game' over bailout failure -CNN
White House Says Mortgage Rescue Plan Remains n Track -FOX
McCain, Obama urge financial rescue action -MSNBC

Note: I tried to draw headlines from multiple media outlets, but as you can see, there are fewer headlines from last week as I was somewhat lazy in searching for them...

To summarize...

Last week's news of the bailout brought some small fluctuations in the market, and by small I mean not the 300 point swings we have been seeing more and more often. Still, having no hard evidence on which way the bailout vote would go, investors entered somewhat of a holding pattern and the DJIA remained still.

By Thursday, news of an agreement in principal on a bailout proposal was announced, which resulted in a small boost to investor confidence. This boost was continued on Friday as it appeared that the bailout would pass during the following week.

On Monday, news hit that the bailout bill has failed to pass the House of Representatives. With no other plan of action in sight, this caused widespread panic in the US financial market and the DJIA fell over 770 points.

Today, as reports come in that new life has been given to the bailout, the DJIA rebounded 485 points. It is now likely that we will witness another holding period where we will see smaller fluctuations in the market as investors react to small bits of news, in anticipation for the bigger news on whether or not the bailout will pass on the second go around.

The point...

All of this is a prime example of behavioral finance, at the root of which is investor confidence. If anything, a bailout will inspire the confidence needed for the market's rebound. As news trickles down, people will stop panicking and the wheels of the US financial markets will start moving again. Deposits will stabilize, liquidity will increase and banks will continue to make loans. In turn, this will encourage economic growth and improve the health of the US economy. All because of confidence.

At this point, a $700 billion dollar bailout is not as much a matter of provisions, oversight, or even amount. Right now, a bailout is about creating confidence in the US economy and removing the underlying cause for fear in the financial markets (sub-prime mortgages).

Some will most surely point out that confidence is a pretty weak argument to stand on. Granted that may be the case, it is a lack of confidence that caused the US market to lose $1.2 trillion dollars yesterday.

As of right now, the only confidence that exists in our economy is the overconfidence of many Americans who believe that our financial markets will fix themselves without the aid of Congress. It is this overconfidence that prevents them from seeing the negative impact that every American will feel as a result of inaction and the continued reliance on the inefficient tools that the Treasury, Fed, and FDIC currently have at their disposal to combat this crisis.

In closing...

All in all, confidence is a silly thing. Yet somehow, this emotional state of mind has the power to alter so many things in our lives, be it an athletic competition, an interview, a relationship, or even our economy. It is my hope that during the next few days a bailout will be passed and that some confidence will be restored to the US economy and the American people. I hope that you will join me in that hope.

Thank you for listening. May God bless you.

-dunkie, '08 presidential nominee

Something to sleep on...

2008-09-29T22:24:00.000-07:00

The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index is a market capitalization-weighted index that aims to capture the total value of all the actively traded stocks in the United States. Today, that index fell 1,024 points, or 8.3%.

Q: What does that mean?

It means that today, the stock market lost over $1 trillion dollars. For the record, that's a 1, with 4 commas, and 12 zeros.

-dunkie

Bailout Update/Rant...

2008-09-29T13:44:00.000-07:00

Over the last few days I have tried numerous times to sit down and write a blog update regarding the bailout. Each time I have stopped short of posting something because I have felt that what came out was more of a political rant than anything of value.

Now that the bailout proposal has failed to pass the House of Representatives, I feel like I need to at least write something, even if that something ends up being a rant on the current state of politics in the United States.

Q: Why didn't the bill pass?

A: In what is strictly my opinion, the bill did not pass due to political bullshit. In other words, there is an election in 40 days and everyone from Presidential Candidates to House Representatives are employing CYOA (Cover Your Own Ass) politics.

Q: What do you have to support that claim?

A: During the 1st presidential debate the candidates spent 40 minutes talking around a possible bailout. Why did they do this? Because they are playing up to the vast majority of the voting public who are uneducated when it comes to the financial crisis that our country is facing right now. Spending taxpayer money is by no means popular, even if it is the right thing to do.

Speaking of spending taxpayer money not being popular, here is a prime example of that...

The proposal for the bailout broke the authorization of $700 billion into three pieces. The first $250 billion was to be authorized immediately, the second tranche of $100 billion was subject to approval by the President, and the third tranche of $350 billion required congressional approval. Looking beyond the political bullshit, here is what that translates to...

"We realize that authorizing $700 billion to solve this crisis is the right thing to do, but it isn't going to make us very popular. So lets do this, lets all share in the responsibility for the first $250 billion of taxpayer money we spend.

The next $100 billion, well, there really isn't much reason to separate it from the first $250 billion, except we don't responsibility for spending it. So George... err Mr. President, you're going to have to bite the bullet on this one. But since you are already unpopular and don't have to worry about getting being re-elected, you won't mind,right?

As for the last $350 billion, we are only going to authorize that when we know that this is going to work, at which point, we will want the credit for doing what was necessary in order to lead our economy beyond this crisis."

Well, it turns out that there were not enough CYOA provisions in the bill, and it was shot down. If this crisis hit 40 days from now, I suspect that we would be seeing a completely different result of todays vote. Sadly, it seems that members of the House are more concerned with being being re-elected, than doing what actually needs to be done.

Q: Wow, you weren't kidding about this being a rant...

A: Yeah. I'm pretty pissed off actually.

Q: What happens now?

A: It is likely that politicians will try to breathe new life into the bill and it will be brought before the house again (plus or minus a few hundred billion dollars, along with some provisions). Even if the bailout passes the second time around, we will most likely see more banking failures, more losses in the US stock market, and possible spikes in inflation before anything happens. When Bush, Bernanke, and Paulson said that we needed to act now, they weren't kidding.

The Treasury will continue to deal with each failing institution on a case by case basis and we will continue to see the patchwork fixes that have have only served to delay the problem instead of dealing with the underlying issues of this crisis. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve could lower interest rates to try and provide relief to the credit markets, as well as slow down the effects in the stock market. This will most likely cause inflation within the US economy.

In the worst case scenario, large commercial banks will fail and no one will have the capital available to buy them. At this point the FDIC won't be facilitating a bank buyout like in the case of WaMu, but they will be eating the entire cost. Incase that isn't clear, the FDIC is backed by the Treasury, which is funded by... you guess it, taxpayer money.

So like it or not, taxpayer money will be used to deal with this crisis regardless of congressional approval. What remains to be seen is if congress is willing to move beyond their political bullshit and allow taxpayer money to be spent in a way that will serve as more than just a stopgap.

Q: Can you please explain the worst case scenario a little more?

A: If commercial banks fail and no one is able to buy them, the FDIC will step in and guarantee deposits up to $100,000. As these failures mount up, the Deposit Insurance Fund would eventually be depleted, and the FDIC would turn to the Treasury for funds. So instead of spending $700 billion in taxpayer money (which, under the failed bill, would be completely repaid) to remove the underlying cause of this crisis, we have opened ourselves up to feeling the direct impact of this crisis to anyone who has a depository account at any banking institution.

Q: Wow, that sucks. Why didn't anyone say that before this went to vote?

A: Political bullshit...

Q: I have more questions for you and/or completely disagree with you...

A: Post a comment and respond later. This MNF game just went into OT and demands my full attention.

Update: Steelers just kicked a field goal in OT to win it. Also, I don't actually think we will see the worst case scenario come about, mainly because "Too Big To Fail" policy would kick in before then...

-dunkie

The Top 10 Failures in Seattle's History:

2008-09-26T13:50:00.000-07:00

Instead of jumping right into the list, I thought I'd say a few things about the honorable mentions that almost made it. First, Frank Gehry, for designing the Experience Music Project. For all the money Paul Allen spent on this building, it sure is ugly. Secondly, Pearl Jam, for every album they recorded after Vitalogy. Granted, that I gave up listening to anything they produced after 2000.

I'm sure there are more things that deserve a spot on this list, or at the very least, an honorable mention, but I've already spent half a day coming up with this list and don't really feel like noodling on it more than that. Feel free to throw in your 2 cents in the comments section. Okay, enough of my rambling. Without further adu...

The Top 10 Failures in Seattle's History:

10. In 2001, the Seattle Mariners tied the major league record for wins in a season, tallying 116 in all. While this could easily be considered one of the greatest successes in Seattle’s history, the Mariners failure to make it past the New York Yankees in the ALCS and into the World Series earns them a spot on this list.

9. Although the season is not over yet, the 2008 Seattle Mariners have also secured themselves a spot on this list. Topping their 116 win season in 2001, the Mariners spent $117 million dollars in payroll this year. With three games left to play, the Mariners have accumulated a staggering 101 losses this season. Currently, this ranks third behind their 103 (1980), and 102 (1983) loss seasons. Regardless of how many losses they end up with, you can chalk up this season as a failure.

8. January 4, 2004. Lambeau Field. The Seattle Seahawks vs. the Green Back Packers in the NFC Wild Card playoff game. The stakes? The right to move onto the NFC Divisional Playoff game. At the end of four quarters of play, the game is tied, 27-27. One word. Overtime.

The referee flips the coin in order to determine who gets the ball first. The Hawks win the toss. Do they want to play offensive or defense first? Matt Hasselbeck leans in towards the microphone and says,

“We want the ball, and we’re going to score!”

What transpired next was a Seahawks drive that ended abruptly when Hasselbeck’s throw was picked off by Packers defensive back, Al Harris, who then took it to the house for 6 points and the OT win. I have one word for you Matt Hasselbeck. FAIL.

7. Following the attack on Pearl Harbor, an internment camp was set up in Puyallup, WA. This camp was given the name Camp Harmony. Japanese-Americans were sent here for fear that they would provide Japan with information that would aid them in future attacks. This act of injustice would rank much higher on this list, except that the camp was located in Puyallup and not directly in Seattle.

6. Whoever is responsible for the poor planning of the transportation in and around the city of Seattle failed miserably at their job. Lucky for them, I don’t know exactly who that person is. If I ever find out their identity, I will be sure to update this list and place a big bag of s*** on their doorstep.

5. On February 10, 2000, Ken Griffey Jr. was traded to the Cincinnati Reds. Over the previous 10 years, The Kid had become the heart and soul of the Seattle Mariners ballclub.

While Junior did ask to be traded, I still need someone to blame for this failure, and that someone is the Seattle Mariners front office. Obviously, Griffey can’t be blamed for his own departure… after all, he is The Kid.

4. In 2006, Howard Schultz sold the Seattle SuperSonics to an Oklahoma City businessman, Clay Bennett. Failure to reach an agreement with the city of Seattle on a new arena for the Sonics then lead to the departure of the Sonics from Seattle in 2008. Along with this departure, Seattle also lost their one legitimate Championship title, as well phenom Kevin Durant and a six first-round draft picks (also, seven second-round picks) over the next three years on which to rebuild the team. A big thanks goes out to Howard Schultz, Clay Bennett, and the city of Seattle for failing miserably in their efforts to keep the Sonics in Seattle.

3. The Battle in Seattle. In 1999 the World Trade Organization convened in Seattle to launch trade negotiations leading into the new millennium. Protest over this event soon followed which eventually escalated into a full scale riot in downtown Seattle. Soon after, the trade negotiations collapsed, leading this event to become one of Seattle’s largest failures ever.

2. On September 25, 2008 the Seattle based thrift bank, Washington Mutual, became the largest bank to fail in the history of the United States. While depositors remained protected by the FDIC and operations were taken over by J.P. Morgan Chase, shareholders of the company were left standing out in the cold. This would rank as the number one Seattle failure of all time if it wasn’t for the fact the Washington Mutual was first created in 1889 in order to help the city of Seattle recover from…

1. The Great Seattle Fire. On June 6, 1889, in the carpentry shop of owner John Bachs, an overturned glue pot lead to a fire that decimated the city of Seattle. Over thirty-two city blocks went down in flames, as well as every railroad in the city, and all but four of the city’s piers. It is estimated that this disaster cost the city over $20 million dollars (remember, this was 1889…) and over 5,000 people lost their jobs. All because of a pot of glue...

While the Seattle Mariners did manage to make this list three times, I must say that The Great Seattle Fire still edges them out for the most EPIC FAILURE in the history of Seattle. So congratulations to John Bachs for causing this failure and taking home the Biggest Goat Award. Kerry Killinger (a.k.a. the former CEO of WaMu), Matt Hasselbeck, and the Mariners entire front office thanks you.

-dunkie

Washington Mutual... FAIL.

2008-09-25T19:36:00.000-07:00

This just in... Washington Mutual has been seized by federal regulators and a deal has been struck with J.P. Morgan Chase to sell them the bulk of WaMu's existing operations. Can we say... FAIL?

Before we jump into the Q & A it is important to note that Washington Mutual is/was a thrift bank and the largest thrift bank at that. This is much like a commercial bank, except that it deals with consumers and not corporations. As a result of this, they are much more intrenched in the mortgage market. Also, like commercial banks, thrifts are still dependent on customer deposits that allow them to lend out money. Okay, now that we have all that out of the way...

Q: Why did Washington Mutual fail?

A: Too much of WaMu's operations was caught up in the mortgage mess. As things began to unravel over the course of the last few months people who had money deposited at WaMu became nervous and decided to move their money elsewhere. What was once considered a stable base of deposits, saw a dramatic decrease, ending with the departure of over $16 billion worth of deposits in the last 10 days.

Q: How does losing deposits cause a bank to fail?

A: Resulting from the departure of so much cash, WaMu was unable to meet short-term cash obligations. To explain this better lets use an example:

Note: If you have been paying attention, you know that commercial banks and thrifts rely on deposits that allow them to make loans.

Imagine that The Bank of "Your Name Here" has $100 dollars in deposits. Due to regulations, this means that your bank/thrift can lend out $1000 dollars, which would give you a debt/equity ratio of 10. This is the basis on why commercial banks are still standing, and investment banks are not.

Now, imagine that you lose half of your deposits overnight. You still have $1000 dollars loaned out, which means that all of a sudden your debt/equity ratio has jumped to 20. Right now you should be thinking to yourself "Crap. The Bank of "Your Name Here" is in deep s***. We don't have enough money to meet our short-term debt obligations. We failed."

(If you are still confused on why WaMu failed, then you just died... that is, if this was a choose your own adventure book. But no worries, just go back and read my blog about Wall Street and then continue on your merry way.)

Q: Okay. I get it. Washington Mutual failed. Federal regulators stepped in. What now?

A: Thankfully, federal regulators were also able to line up a buyer for WaMu. J.P. Morgan Chase will now purchase the deposits and branches of WaMu for the price of $1.9 billion.

Q: How will that effect people who use or have money at Washington Mutual?

A: With J.P. Morgan Chase stepping in, WaMu's operations will continue and the branches will still be open for normal operations. While all deposits are backed by the FDIC (up to $100,000), it is pretty safe to say that the FDIC won't have to step in and even people with over $100,000 don't have to worry about losing their money.

Q: What about people who own Washington Mutual stock?

A: Over the last year, the price of WaMu stock has gone from over $30 per share, to just over $1 per share. It is expected that the failure of WaMu will result in shareholders being completely wiped out... meaning they will be left holding stock certificates with a value of zero.

Q: Wow...

A: Yes... "Wow" is one of the many acceptable one word responses to a failure of this size. My condolences to anyone who owns large positions in Washington Mutual.

Q: What's next? Will commercial banks start to fail now?

A: Commercial banks are not nearly as wrapped up in the mortgage crisis as investment banks and thrift banks are. That being said, if you had asked me a year ago if the investment banks would fail, I, as well as many people, would have laughed.

Q: That really isn't the answer I was looking for...

A: Sorry. That's the best I can give you. If I knew what would happen next I probably wouldn't be spending my Thursday evening writing blog posts for my 1, maybe 2 readers. So yeah, I don't really have an answer for you on what will happen next.

Keep in mind that this JUST happened tonight. I'm sure that more details will be available tomorrow when the markets open, at which point I will try to answer any additional questions that I have for myself.

-dunkie

Breaking Down the Bailout

2008-09-25T14:39:00.000-07:00

As of this afternoon, the

"Congressional Republicans and Democrats came to an agreement on principles for the Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program that they will take into final negotiations with the White House." -Phil Izzo

The following is a breakdown of the "Agreement on Principles" for the "Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program" (aka... the bailout of the United Stated Economy) as well as my 2 cents...

Note: The details of this bailout plan can, and most likely will, change before all is said and done. I will provide updates as those changes are made.

Q: What is being done to protect taxpayers?

1. Taxpayer Protection

a. Requires Treasury Secretary to set standards to prevent excessive or inappropriate executive compensation for participating companies
b. To minimize risk to the American taxpayer, requires that any transaction include equity sharing
c. Requires most profits to be used to reduce the national debt

A: In regards to executive compensation, WAY too much energy has been put into this discussion. A $50 million golden parachute is about half a day’s interest on $700 billion. Can’t we just pay these people to get them out of the way, rather than have them in the center of trying to fix the things that they screwed up in the first place?

Equity sharing will add an additional layer of protection to American taxpayers and give them more assurance of actually getting the $700 billion back. As for reducing the national debt with any profits from this venture, that seems a little like a black hole. If profits were redistributed in the form of tax breaks, that would boost consumer spending, and ultimately the economy. But hey, what do I know?

Q: Who will be monitoring this process? Not that we don’t trust our own Government…

2. Oversight and Transparency

a. Treasury Secretary is prohibited from acting in an arbitrary or capricious manner or in any way that is inconsistent with existing law
b. Establishes strong oversight board with cease and desist authority
c. Requires program transparency and public accountability through regular, detailed reports to Congress disclosing exercise of the Treasury Secretary’s authority
d. Establishes an independent Inspector General to monitor the use of the Treasury Secretary’s authority
e. Requires GAO audits to ensure proper use of funds, appropriate internal controls, and to prevent waste, fraud, and abuse

A: This is a biggie. Oversight is very much necessary. However, as is so often the case, this could also slow the process of things down significantly. Still, it is a price that must be paid given what is at stake.

Q: Will this help the people that were “victimized” by mortgage companies?

3. Homeownership Preservation

a. Maximize and coordinate efforts to modify mortgages for homeowners at risk of foreclosure
b. Requires loan modifications for mortgages owned or controlled by the Federal Government
c. Directs a percentage of future profits to the Affordable Housing Fund and the Capital Magnet Fund to meet America’s housing needs

A: First off, many of these people are hardly victims. If anything, they are victims of their own stupidity. That aside, preservation of homeownership will be a key factor in the return to a healthy U.S. economy. One way to do that would be to allow judges to change the terms of mortgages. Beyond that, I'm not quite sure what could, or should be done here.

Q: How much money are we spending here?

4. Funding Authority

a. Treasury Secretary’s request for $700 billion is authorized, with $250 billion available immediately and an additional $100 billion released upon his or her certification that funds are needed
b. final $350 billion is subject to a Congressional joint resolution of disapproval

A: Congress is, somewhat understandably, trying to tip-toe into this. The $100 billion check upon “certification” might have well already been cashed.

As for the second half of the $700 billion bailout, Congress wants the power to pull the plug if things don’t quite work out. Realistically speaking, this check is already cashed also. Members of congress are just hoping that they won’t have to be the ones directly responsible for cashing it.

It will be interesting to see what the initial market reaction will be to the tip-toe funding plan that has been agreed upon (in principle) by Congress. The markets have been in somewhat of a holding pattern this week awaiting the details of the bailout. I suspect that the response will be positive, followed by a period in which everyone stops for a second, looks around, and says “wait… do we even know that this will pass?” At which point we will probably resume the holding pattern until this gets past the house.

-dunkie

Sports: The Business of Caring

2008-09-24T11:51:00.000-07:00

There are many types of Sports Fans in this world, each of which have their own unique way of enjoying sports. While some of these fan types have less "fan integrity" than others, there is one factor that every fan is able relate to; whether you are a die-hard fanatic, a bandwagon jumper, a homer, an alumnus, or even just a casual fan. That one factor, as Roger Angell put so eloquently in his book Five Seasons, is "the business of caring."

"It is foolish and childish, on the face of it, to affiliate ourselves with anything so insignificant and patently contrived and commercially exploitive as a professional sports team, and the amused superiority and icy scorn that the non-fan directs at the sports nut (I know this look -- I know it by heart) is understandable and almost unanswerable. Almost. What is left out of this calculation, it seems to me, is the business of caring -- caring deeply and passionately, really caring -- which is a capacity or an emotion that has almost gone out of our lives. And so it seems possible that we have come to a time when it no longer matters so much what the caring is about, how frail or foolish is the object of that concern, as long as the feeling itself can be saved. Naivete -- the infantile and ignoble joy that sends a grown man or woman to dancing and shouting with joy in the middle of the night over the haphazardous flight of a distant ball -- seems a small price to pay for such a gift."

For some, the business of caring will encompass a lifetime, tracing back to a youthful memory such as a first trip to the ballpark. Others may only find themselves in caring for short periods of time, be it for the two hours of tailgating leading up to a big sporting event, or the last two minutes of a close playoff game.

Some of us may care because our pride demands it, while others care simply because they were given a free ticket to a game. It may be the case that the only reason a person cares is because for some unfathomable reason that they will never understand, the emotional well being of a loved one rests solely on the outcome of the next play, and for that reason and that reason only, they give care.

In the end, it matters not who or why we even care. What matters most is that for some moment in time, no matter "how frail or foolish" it was, we took a second and cared about something.

-dunkie

Refuse to Lose

2008-09-23T21:38:00.000-07:00

Tonight, if only for one night, the Seattle Mariners fought off the best team in Major League Baseball, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, coming back from a 6-2 deficit in the 6th inning to win the game with a final score of 9-6.

In doing so, the Mariners not only ended a 12 game losing streak, but also prevented themselves from becoming the first 100 loss team since the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and Kansas City Royals both "accomplished" this feat in 2006.

With five games to go in the season in is more likely than not that the Mariners will eventually reach the 100 game mark. But for at least one night, the Mariners showed that they still have a little SODO MOJO left in their gas tank. And for this Seattle Fan, that is all the fuel needed.

"Right now, the Mariners looking for the tie. They would take a fly ball; they would love a base hit into the gap and they could win it with Junior's speed. The stretch and the 0-1 pitch on the way to Edgar Martinez; swung on and lined down the left field line for a base hit! Here comes Joey! Here is Junior to third base, they're going to wave him in! The throw to the plate will be... LATE! The Mariners are going to play for the American League Championship! I don't believe it! It just continues! My oh My!" -Dave Niehaus, "The Double" - Game 5 of the 1995 ALDS

Okay... so maybe I needed a little more than just one late inning comeback win to make me feel better after this terrible season and horrific year in Seattle sports. Can you blame me? REFUSE TO LOSE.

-dunkie

Where did "Wall Street" go?

2008-09-23T12:57:00.000-07:00

Here is my summary of what happened to "Wall Street." There are probably a few hundred questions that aren't tackled here, so if you have any, please feel free to post them in the comments section and I will try my best to address them.

Q: What is going on here?
A: Up until a few weeks ago there were four main Investment Banks in the United States. Those being: Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Essentially, these four financial institutions made up the bulk of “Wall Street”. As of today, this number has effectively been reduced to zero.

Q: What happened to the Investment Banks?
A: September 13, 2008: Lehman Brothers declares bankruptcy .
September 14, 2008: Merrill Lynch is acquired by Bank of America.
September 22, 2008 Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs agree to convert from investment banks into commercial banks.

Q: What’s the difference between an Investment Bank and a Commercial Bank?
A: A bank is a financial institution that acts as an intermediary for people who want to borrow and lend money. The main difference that applies here lies within where the money (i.e. equity/capital) comes from.

In a Commercial Bank, the money that is used for lending comes from “depository accounts.” Basically, what we are talking about here are savings & checking accounts. It is also important to note that Commercial Banks are regulated by the Federal Reserve.

For an Investment Bank, capital is raised by issuing and selling securities (i.e. stocks/bonds) in the capital market (i.e. the stock market). The primary regulator for this type of bank is the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Q: Uh… that wasn’t very helpful. What does that really mean?
A: Unless we are dealing with a “run on the bank,” the total of all depository accounts does not tend to change much. People need a place to put their money, and it turns out that placing it underneath a mattress isn’t very secure. Also, depository accounts are backed by the FDIC which ensures your deposits up to $100,000. This makes depository accounts very attractive when it comes to creating a solid foundation on which to loan money out. The depositors have assurance that their money will be there when they need access to it, thus preventing a “run on the bank” type situation.

As for security backed lending (again, think stocks and bonds) there is a large chance of having a significant variance in capital, especially in times of turmoil when people are more inclined to sell their riskier assets (and reduce available capital), instead of purchase more (and increase available capital).

Q: Come on, get to your point already…
A: Ok. The big key here lies within the regulation… Commercial Banks are required by the Federal Reserve to keep a “required reserve ratio” of 10. In short, for every 1 dollar of “deposits” they have, they are able to loan out 10 dollars.

Investment banks on the other hand, have no such requirement. To compare to the reserve ratio that is required by the Federal Reserve of 10, Investment Banks were carrying ratios as high as 33. In other words, for every one dollar they had in cash they loaned out 33 dollars. In regards to profits, this WAS a great thing. In retrospect, this was incredibly stupid and many people are now saying "I told you so!"

Q: Ok... So using my superior puzzle skills, what you are saying is that:

Due to very little regulation, Investment Banks loaned out too much money. When s*** hit the fan, people started selling for fear that the securities they had purchased would soon be reduced to a value of 0. At this point the Investment Banks realized that they didn’t have enough capital on hand to pay out. As a result, some Investment Banks declared bankruptcy (Lehman Brothers), while others merged with an existing bank to gain access to additional capital (Merrill Lynch) or in the case of some Investment Banks who hadn’t quite hit the fan (Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley), decided to convert to commercial banks, thus giving them access to more secure capital through depository accounts.

A: Exactly, except that I would also add that Commercial Banks can also gain access to short-term capital via the fed funds (i.e. overnight borrowing from other depository institutions) or the discount window (borrowing directly from the federal reserve).

Q: Why didn’t you tell me that before?
A: I guess I forgot. Sorry.

Q: Anything else you “forgot” to tell me?
A: I guess the big takeaway here is that historically “Wall Street” was made up of these large Investment Banks. While they haven’t just disappeared, they have certainly changed form. What we are seeing is a shift from the “Wall Street Model” of Investment Banks, to a new model in which Commercial Banks are one stop-financial shops. Essentially we are talking about institutions like CitiGroup, J.P. Morgan Chase and Bank of America that will now be the face of the “New Wall Street.”

-dunkie

AIG..."Too Big To Fail?"

2008-09-15T09:44:00.000-07:00

Lots of "fun" stuff going on in the markets this week. In regards to AIG and the "bailout" by the US Government, here is simplified look at what is happening...

Q: How much money does AIG need to pay out (i.e. short-term debt obligations)?
A: $14,500,000,000... and up to $85,000,000,000 over the next two years.

Q: How much cash does AIG have available?
A: Less than $14,500,000,000.

Q: What would AIG be worth if they sold everything?
A: More than $14,500,000,000... probably close to $85,000,000,000.

Q: How much money is the US Government loaning AIG so they don't have to sell everything to meet their short-term debt obligations?
A: Up to $85,000,000,000 over the next two years.

Q: What does the US Government is get in return?
A: 79.9% ownership in AIG.
11.5% interest on the amount AIG borrows.

Q: If the US Government didn't step in, what would happen?
A: AIG would be forced to sell off assets in order to meet short-term debt obligations. This would snowball until they were unable to do so, at which point they would declare bankruptcy.

Q: So what? AIG should burn in hell for all I care...
A: $85,000,000,000 is a lot of money. If AIG had to liquidate immediately, the market would be flooded with assets would would most likely spell disaster for the financial markets (much worse than we are seeing right now). In otherwords... AIG is "Too big to fail."

Q: Why is the US Government saving AIG and not Lehman Brothers?
A: AIG has the ability to repay the $85 billion dollars they are being loaned. Their loan is "secured" by the assets they own. Lehman Brothers doesn't have nearly enough assets to "secure" a loan the size that would be needed to "bail" them out. In otherwords, the US Government is making somewhat of a good loan, opposed to all the crappy loans that got us into this whole mess in the first place...

Q: Ok... so what does the future hold?
A: It is hard to tell. The most likely outcome is that AIG will be forced to liquidate itself slowly in order to repay the "bailout" from the US Government. Since this will occur over a longer time, the hope is that the financial markets will be able to support it.

Q: I'm still confused. Can you say it all again?
A: Nope... this is pretty much as simple as it gets.

-dunkie

We've Hit Rock Bottom

2008-09-10T00:56:00.000-07:00

The Mariners have the worst record in baseball.
The Seahawks are 0-1.

The Huskies are 0-2.

The Sonics are... no longer with us.

The Storm is... a WNBA team.

(AP Photo: May 26, 1995. Ken Griffey Jr. breaks his left wrist crashing into the Kingdome wall while making a game-saving catch.)

Simply put, it doesn't get any worse than this for the Seattle Sports Fan. You can argue that a season-ending injury to one of Seattle's star players would make things worse, but don't kid yourself...

There is nothing beyond last place.
Zero wins divided by any number of losses...
...still equates to a 0.00 winning percentage.
Our one legitimate championship is gone.
The Storm is... still a WNBA team.

I think Lloyd Dobler said it best in the Seattle based 80's classic Say Anything.

"You probably got it all figured out, Corey. If you start out depressed everything's kind of a pleasant surprise."

Things may not fair any better in the foreseeable future for the Seattle Sports Fan, but on the bright side, things can't get any worse than they already are. I for one will continue to be depressed by the current state of Seattle sports and maybe, just maybe, the next time I turn on ESPN I might find myself being pleasantly surprised...

-dunkie

The Subprime Mortgage Crisis

2008-09-09T14:50:00.000-07:00

Here is my simplified take on what is going on with the "subprime mortgage crisis." I hope Charles Schulz doesn't mind me using the "Peanuts Gang" to help illustrate my thoughts.

In the beginning...

How this all happened...

What's going on now?

R.I.P. Charles M. Schulz
November 26, 1992 - February 12, 2000

-dunkie

What's this all about?

2008-09-08T23:35:00.000-07:00

I think I'll borrow a line from one of my favorite movies as inspiration for my blog and see how far that takes me...

"...Follow your heart kid, and you'll never go wrong." -The Sandlot

So pretty much, I'll be blogging on whatever I feel like.

I hope that reading my blog will be somewhat thought provoking and that what will inevitably become my incoherent ramblings won't cause your head to explode.

-dunkie