The Not So Ultimate Driving Machine

How bad is my car in the snow right now?  It sucks so bad that I was unable to get over the 6 inch incline to make it into my driveway.  As a result, I've had to park my car on the street for the last two nights.  

Further exemplifying my car's suckyness, I tried to move it just now and was only able to succeed in sliding the car back 15 feet, at which point my car was stopped by the pile of snow that my neighbor made when he cleared his driveway.

To top it all off, I may have succeeded in applying a nice dose of curb rash to my wheels while sliding backwards.  I'm crossing my fingers that the thick layer of ice that was encasing the curb prevented any major damage.

I'm pretty sure I'm not going to be able to move my car for a few days.  That, or I am going to have to spend a few hours with my invisible shovel to clear the area surrounding my car tomorrow.  Ugh...  I should have bought an Audi.

-dunkie

CrossFit

I guess I should rewind a little bit here and take a moment to provide some explanation of what CrossFit is. In order to best do so, I'm just going to steal bits and pieces from various CrossFit websites that I find useful. This is also because I'm lazy and have no desire to reinvent the wheel...

According to CrossFit founder Greg Glassman,

"CrossFit is a core strength and conditioning program in two distinct senses.

First, we are a “core” strength and conditioning program in the sense that the fitness we develop is foundational to all other athletic needs. This is the same sense in which the university courses required of a particular major are called the “core curriculum”. This is the stuff that everyone needs.

Second, we are a “core” strength and conditioning program in the literal sense meaning the center of something. Much of our work focuses on the major functional axis of the human body, the extension and flexion, of the hips and extension, flexion, and rotation of the torso or trunk. The primacy of core strength and conditioning in this sense is supported by the simple observation that powerful hip extension alone is necessary and nearly sufficient for elite athletic performance. That is, our experience has been that no one without the capacity for powerful hip extension enjoys great athletic prowess and nearly everyone we’ve met with that capacity was a great athlete.

Running, jumping, punching and throwing all originate at the core. At CrossFit we endeavor to develop our athletes from the inside out, from core to extremity, which is by the way how good functional movements recruit muscle, from the core to the extremities."

CrossFit is a program designed to elicit as broad an adaptational response as possible. It is not a specialized fitness program, but a deliberate attempt to optimize physical competence in each of ten recognized fitness domains:

1. Cardiovascular/Respiratory Endurance- The ability of body systems to gather, process, and deliver oxygen.

2. Stamina - The ability of body systems to process, deliver, store, and
utilize energy.

3. Strength - The ability of a muscular unit, or combination of muscular units, to apply force.

4. Flexibility - the ability to maximize the range of motion at a given joint.

5. Power - The ability of a muscular unit, or combination of muscular units, to apply maximum force in minimum time.

6. Speed - The ability to minimize the time cycle of a repeated movement.

7. Coordination - The ability to combine several distinct movement patterns into a singular distinct movement.

8. Agility - The ability to minimize transition time from one movement
pattern to another.

9. Balance - The ability to control the placement of the body's center of
gravity in relation to its support base.

10. Accuracy - The ability to control movement in a given direction or at a given intensity.

The general idea of CrossFit is to not specialize in any one aspect of fitness, but to train and excel in all aspects.

In 100 words...

"Eat meat and vegetables, nuts and seeds, some fruit, little starch and no sugar. Keep intake to levels that will support exercise but not body fat. Practice and train major lifts: Deadlift, clean, squat, presses, C&J, and snatch. Similarly, master the basics of gymnastics: pull-ups, dips, rope climb, push-ups, sit-ups, presses to handstand, pirouettes, flips, splits, and holds. Bike, run, swim, row, etc, hard and fast. Five or six days per week mix these elements in as many combinations and patterns as creativity will allow. Routine is the enemy. Keep workouts short and intense. Regularly learn and play new sports."

Hopefully that provides an adequate explanation of what CrossFit is. Most questions that you might have about CrossFit can be answered by reading the F.A.Q. on www.CrossFit.com. Or if you'd like, post any questions that you have to the comments and I'll try my best to answer them.

-dunkie

Angie & Diane

Angie

100 pull-ups

100 push-ups

100 sit-ups

100 squats

I almost wussed out on this one today.  I felt pretty horrible (great) from the Filthy Fifty yesterday and didn't know if I would be able to get through this in a reasonable amount of time. Hoops said he might do this today so that gave me a little motivation and by the time I walked down to the downtown Y I had convinced myself that I had it in me.  Anyways...

Time: 21:34

Not horrible, but nothing earth shattering.  I feel like I could have done a sub 20:00 on this if I was fresh.  My kip disappeared after the first 50 pull-ups which made the second 50 even worse.  Also, I am regretting doing the sit-ups on the hardwood gym floor as my tailbone feels like it's on fire right now.  A 15:00 on this would be great.

After I picked myself off the gym floor I figured that I didn't really have anything else important to do today, or tomorrow for that matter and decided to give Diane a go (she was my backup plan had I not done Angie).

Diane

21-15-9

deadlift - 225 lbs.

handstand push-ups

My hands have been pretty torn up lately so I decided to use straps for this one.  Also, the downtown Y doesn't have a lifting matt which makes doing deadlift a little bit more disruptive then I would have liked.  I'm getting better at handstand push-ups, but that doesn't really say much seeing as how I could barely get into the handstand position two weeks ago.

Time: 12:46

I'm kind of disappointed with this one.  I think I'll try this one again in a week or two.  I feel like I should be able to break 9:00.

Rest day tomorrow.  Maybe I'll work on some form stuff and practice a few of the "beast skills" I'm trying to learn.  Might be fun doing that in the snow... Then again, maybe I'll just sit in bed, watch football, and stay warm.  That sounds pretty good also.

-dunkie

The Filthy Fifty

The Filthy Fifty

50 Box Jumps - 24"

50 Jumping Pull-Ups

50 KB Swings - 1 Pood

50 Walking Lunges

50 Knees to Elbows

50 Push Press - 45 lbs

50 Back Extensions

50 Wall Ball Shots - 20 lbs, 10'

50 Burpees

50 Double Unders

I didn't have any KB's so I used a 35 lb. plate instead (1 lb. shy of a Pood).  Also, the heaviest med ball available was 16 lbs so the wall ball shots were done at 12'.  Aside from that, the workout was done as RX'ed.

Time: 28:06

Notes: This was my first time attempting the Filthy Fifty.  My K2E's need serious work, as do my double-unders.  Hoping to break 25:00 next time and ultimately work towards a sub 20:00.

It's supposed to snow heavily tomorrow so I'll probably have to figure out something that I can do at the Y.  I'll probably take a go at Angie.

Angie

100 pull-ups

100 push-ups

100 sit-ups

100 squats

-dunkie

Character

Back in September I was asked to give a speech at my high school that centered around making college related decisions. One central theme in the speech was character.

The C-Dub mission statement reads:

“[C-Dub] provides a rigorous liberal arts program guided by an ethos of excellence and compassion. Within a diverse learning community, we foster self-reliance, integrity, social responsibility, and humor, empowering our students to achieve their personal best in mind, body, and spirit.”

Excellence.

Compassion.

Self-reliance.

Integrity.

Social responsibility.

Humor.

When I read these words, what comes to mind is character. C-Dub’s mission is to build character.

What is character?

Well, according to H. Jackson Brown, Jr.:

“Our character is what we do when we think no one is looking.”

So what does that mean?

Throughout high school C-Dub provides significant character educators. Between parents, coaches, and teachers, there is almost always someone looking, whether the students know it or not. When help is needed, or questionable decisions are made, these character educators are able to step in to provide guidance.

In a sense, character educators are like training wheels or a safety net for when a student loses their balance. Not only that, but they provide a helping hand to get someone back on their feet and moving again should they fall. It is through this process that C-Dub creates an environment that fosters character development.

How does this relate to college decisions?

In college the training wheels come off. 95% of a college student’s time will be spent with no one but their peers looking. In a sense, it’s huge open book/take home test that everyone has to take. Sure, a student can ask for another students help, except that each person is different and has their own test of character to take. On top of that, since every test is unique, the answers cannot be found in the back of any book.

Above everything else, I believe that C-Dub prepares students to deal with tests of character. In other words, C-Dub teaches students; excellence, compassion, self-reliance, integrity, social responsibility, and humor; for those times when no one is looking.

Why am I just now writing about this?

The short answer is because I’m sitting at home right now without cable or internet due to the current weather conditions in Washington and I figure that I mind as well write something in Word to post later…

The long answer…

I found myself thinking about what I had said in my speech a few months back when I was working out today. Specifically, in regards to the quote:

“Our character is what we do when we think no one is looking.”

On most days, I work out alone. And by that I mean completely alone, with no one else around. While I like this for many reasons, one specific reason is that I am able to try new things and look like a complete idiot with no one watching… at least that’s what I’ve been telling myself.

When I think about it more, I believe that it comes down to two things. Failure and weakness. I, like many people, don’t try new things often for the reason that I am scared to fail or look weak in the presence of others. In regards to character, this raises the question:

Is character what we do when someone is looking?

To answer my own question, I don’t think it is. I think the answer in this case is that character is not being afraid of what other people might think should one fail or show weakness. In doing so, one is able to show character by not fearing judgment, and not being affected by the fact that someone may be watching.

I’m rambling…

To bring this full circle, I enjoy coaching at C-Dub. Be it the middle school baseball team, or helping out with off-season weightlifting for the football team. My coaching philosophy is to encourage the development of excellence, compassion, self-reliance, integrity, social responsibility (teamwork) and humor.

I hope to create an environment where failure and weakness are not only accepted, but welcomed, as they both play an important part in the development of character and athleticism.

To steal a line from Kanye:

“That that don’t kill me, can only make me stronger.”

One last thing…

Character development doesn’t end, and for that matter, nor does the open book test on it. For all the character I hope to develop in the students I coach, I will probably learn equally as much, if not more about my own. For that, I am thankful.

By the way... is anyone reading this?

-dunkie

Bar Stool Economics

This has been circulating the internet lately and has shown up in my e-mail box a number of times. If you haven't seen it yet, I hope you will take the time to read and think about it for a bit...

Bar Stool Economics

By David R. Kamerschen, Ph.D. Professor of Economics, University of Georgia

Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100. If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:

The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.
The fifth would pay $1.
The sixth would pay $3.
The seventh would pay $7.
The eighth would pay $12.
The ninth would pay $18.
The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.

So, that’s what they decided to do. The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve. ‘Since you are all such good customers, he said, ‘I’m going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20. Drinks for the ten now cost just $80.

The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free. But what about the other six men - the paying customers? How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his ‘fair share?’

They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody’s share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer. So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man’s bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.!

And so:

The fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100% savings).
The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33%savings).
The seventh now pay $5 instead of $7 (28%savings).
The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% savings).
The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% savings).
The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% savings).

Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free. But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.

‘I only got a dollar out of the $20,’declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man,’ but he got $10!’

‘Yeah, that’s right,’ exclaimed the fifth man. ‘I only saved a dollar, too. It’s unfair that he got ten times more than I!’

‘That’s true!!’ shouted the seventh man. ‘Why should he get $10 back when I got only two? The wealthy get all the breaks!’

‘Wait a minute,’ yelled the first four men in unison. ‘We didn’t get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!’

The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.

The next night the tenth man didn’t show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They didn’t have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!

And that, boys and girls, journalists and college professors, is how our tax system works. The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking overseas where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.

For those who understand, no explanation is needed.

For those who do not understand, no explanation is possible.

Restore the Uptick Rule, Restore Confidence

The following article was taken from the The Wall Street Journal...

Restore the Uptick Rule, Restore Confidence
Short sales of stocks are fine given one tried and tested regulation.

By CHARLES R. SCHWAB

The last time the stock market suffered from extreme volatility and risk of market manipulation as severe as we are experiencing today, our grandparents' generation stepped up to the plate and instituted the uptick rule. That was 1938. For nearly 70 years average investors benefited immensely from that one simple stabilizing act.

Unfortunately, in a shortsighted move, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) eliminated the rule in July 2007, just as we were about to need it most. Investors have now been whipsawed by what appears to be manipulative trading, what we used to call "bear raids," which drive stock prices down without warning and at breakneck speed. Average investors feel the deck is stacked against them and are losing confidence in the markets.

For the sake of our children and grandchildren, and to avoid a needless future repeat of a bad situation, it is time to restore the uptick rule.

The uptick rule may seem far from a kitchen-table issue, but it is critically important to ordinary investors. With more than half of all U.S. households invested in the stock market, either directly or through a retirement plan, it matters a great deal. The average 401(k) retirement account has lost 20%-30% of its value over the last 18 months -- more than $2 trillion in retirement savings has been wiped out. Behind those numbers are real people who planned and saved, and who are suddenly facing an uncertain retirement and the prospect of working longer.

In the wake of the Great Depression, the uptick rule was established to eliminate manipulation and boost investor confidence. The rule said that short sales could be made only after the price of a stock had moved up (an "uptick") over the prior sale. This slowed the short selling process making it more expensive and limiting the ability of short sellers to manipulate stocks lower by piling on, driving the share price quickly down and quickly profiting from the downdraft they created. In July 2007, however, the SEC repealed the uptick rule after a brief study. Manipulative short sellers couldn't believe their luck.

The SEC's study took place during a period of low volatility and overall rising stock prices in 2005 through part of 2007 and didn't anticipate the kind of market we are experiencing today. We live in an environment now where 200 point drops or more in the Dow Jones Industrial Average are increasingly common, where a stock losing 20%, 30% or even more of its value in a single day barely warrants a second glance at the ticker. Ironically, it was just this sort of volatility that inspired the regulators of the 1930s to implement the uptick rule in the first place. Without this vital control mechanism, short sellers have been having a field day, betting heavily on lower prices and triggering panicked investors to sell even more.

Don't get me wrong. Legitimate short selling where a trader has borrowed shares for future delivery and believes those shares will lose value over time plays an important and stabilizing role in our markets. It provides a check on overexuberant prices on the upside, and provides natural buyers on the downside. The uptick rule, however, prevents short selling from turning into manipulative activity. Reinstating it will help smooth out the markets and reduce the speed of price drops. It will limit the ability of a small number of professional investors to trigger fast dramatic price drops that create panic among investors.

The SEC has an opportunity to make a real difference in helping to control future market stability and restore confidence in the fairness of our capital markets. But the SEC has been strangely silent as the crisis has worsened. It did step in earlier this fall to implement short stock borrowing restrictions and a temporary ban on short selling, first on 19 stocks in the financial services sector, and later in a broader swath of 900 stocks across several sectors. But these steps were a temporary half-measure and didn't fix the problem for the long term. Clearly, the SEC will need to work on some of the mechanics of reinstating the uptick rule. Regulators should act quickly to establish a framework and solicit public comment, then reinstate the rule and remain flexible and willing to fine tune it if necessary.

Ordinary investors' expectations for investing are reasonable. They want a fair playing field. They want to be successful. They want to provide for their families, support their children's education, have a comfortable retirement, and maybe even leave a little bit for future generations. But they can't succeed when the markets are gripped by fear and manipulated by those who want to profit from that fear, at the expense of everyone else.

It may be too late for the restoration of the uptick rule to have much impact on where we are today. But there is no reason to wait and we need the protection in place for the future. It is time to restore it. It's what our grandparents did for us in 1938, and it worked for nearly 70 years. With that kind of track record, we should tip our hats to the regulators of yesteryear and acknowledge that they had it right all along.

Mr. Schwab is the founder and chairman of the financial services firm that bears his name.

Rome... Rome... ROME!!!!

The following quotes were all taken from separate articles in today’s Wall Street Journal.

“President-elect Barack Obama and congressional Democrats are intensifying work on a stimulus plan that would dole out roughly a half-trillion dollars over two years on tax-rebate checks and an array of "green" projects from home weatherization to renewable energy.”

“Their focus is on passing a separate, half-trillion dollar stimulus program that Mr. Obama said Sunday would be the largest infrastructure program since the Eisenhower administration's construction of the interstate highway system.”

“The Marine Corps is on pace to expand its force by tens of thousands more than two years ahead of schedule, a rare bit of good news for a military stretched thin by the long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.”

Large scale public works projects…

Increased military size…

Handing out money to the plebes…

“Ladies and Gentlemen! I give you, Six Degrees to the Roman Empire!!!”

Okay, so maybe I’m not being serious here. Maybe I'm just trying to fill the void in my life that HBO left when they decided to cancel "Rome" after two seasons due to production costs. But if I was being serious...

- Would Obama be granted a Triumph if he brought the troops home from Iraq? According to Wikipedia, these are the qualifications needed for one:

• Win a significant victory over a foreign enemy, killing at least 5,000 enemy troops, and earn the title imperator.
• Be an elected magistrate with the power of imperium, i.e. a dictator, consul, or a praetor.
• Bring the army home, signifying that the war was over and that the army was no longer needed. Of course this only applied to the Republican era when the army was a citizen army. By the imperial period, when the army was professional, the proper triumph was reserved for the emperor and his family. If a general was awarded a triumph by the emperor, he would march with a token number of his troops.
• In the Republican period, the senate had to give approval for a triumph based on the above mentioned requirements.

Assuming that being elected President covers whole “power of imperium” issue, I figure that the senate would be willing to wave the whole "kill 5,000 enemy troops” requirement (while he is in office) so long as Obama were to actually bring them home.

Side-note: If we actually had Triumphs, would Bush have brought the troops home months ago? Even if he did, would the Senate have given him the finger and denied him the honor of a Triumph?

- Would the UFC replace Celine Dion as main attraction at The Colosseum in Caesars Palace? If they matched up UFC fighters against convicted Terrorists would it be in violation of the Geneva Convention? Would watching this event on PPV make me a war criminal?

- Obama mentioned something a while back about creating a Civilian National Security Force. Would this be like the Praetorian Guard? Can Russell Crowe be part of this? “PRAETORIAN!!!”

Okay, enough of this. Time get get serious. Back to work…

-dunkie

The Office...Mom

I work for my dad. He also happens owns the business. Since the state of Washington is a community property state, I guess that also implies that I work for my mom.?

As a result, my mother tends to visit my office frequently. These "visits" typically involve her bugging me for 30 minutes, using our postage machine to send out personal letters, and then "borrowing" whatever supplies we have in stock (i.e. pens, yellow note pads, ect...).

Today, she stopped by in order to make copies of some X-mas card she put together. In her attempts to do so, she jammed our printer and had to be escorted out of the office before anything else was broken. I'd feel bad about doing this, except she then decided to then plant herself outside my door for 30 minutes and make faces at me while I tried to eat my lunch.

If my mom was 20 years older I'd probably try to get her to audition for a part on The Office as Michael Scott's mother. I'm pretty sure they could make an entire season around this.

- Michael's mom moves into town. She decides to visit him at the office and brings treats for everyone. Everyone loves her except Dwight, who saw her slip a pen into her purse before she left...

- Michael's mom calls Pam to set up an appointment with Michael under the title "Important Client Meeting." Michael, thinking that he actually has an important client meeting scheduled, is stressed all day becaue he has no idea what the meeting is about.

- Michael's mom decides to redecorate The Office with the help of Angela. Phyllis is left out of the planning committe and becomes unfriendly with Michael's mom.

- Jim takes Michael's mom out on a date. Michael's mom procedes to tell Jim embarrassing stories about Michael. Jim procedes to tell Michael's mom that he thinks Michael needs to get out more often.

- Michael's mom attempts to set Michael up on a blind date. Reluctantly, Michael agrees. At the same time, in an attempt to patch up her relationshop with Phyllis, Michael's mom sets her up on a blind date also...

The storyline possibilities really are endless here. Hell, I think you could even make a whole separate TV show about this. Are any TV execs out there reading this? This needs to happen, if only to get my mom from stop bugging me at work.

-dunkie

A Good Day?

Last night I was listening to music while attempting to fall asleep when "It Was a Good Day" by Ice Cube came up on my playlist. Normally, this would be a nice song to end the day on, but when the lyrics "The Lakers beat the Supersonics" came up I instantly became bummed.

With the Supersonics gone, will there every be a "Good Day" again? Will future generations ever be able to relate to the words of Ice Cube? As depressing thoughts such as these flooded my mind, a vision came to me.  

I will now share that vision with you...

On February 10, 2009 the Lakers play the "Team Not to be Named" at the Staples Center.  In my vision I see the lights go down as the Kobe Bryant lead his team out of the tunnel to Ice Cubes ballad.

The game itself will play out much like last years meeting when Kobe scored 48 points, including an 18 footer in overtime to seal the victory 123-121, except this time he will have a triple-double.  Both Ice Cube and Gary Payton (despite his differences with Kobe) will be sitting courtside the entire game next to Jack Nicholson.

Following the game, Kobe will walk up to the press conference podium wearing an open suit jacket with a Sonics t-shirt underneath.  After looking around a few times, a wide smile will appear on his face, at which point he will lean over towards the microphone and simply say, "Today, was a good day."  

As the assembled media collectively raises their hands to ask him what exactly he is talking about, he will stand up and walk off the stage.  With no further explanation needed, Sonics fans worldwide will end their period of mourning and pour one last drop out for their former team.

This my friends, is the vision that I share with you.  Now, if only there was some way to make it a reality...

-dunkie

A Short Thanksgiving Recap

YMCA Turkey Bowl: Our team won, no thanks in part to myself, as my hamstring decide to go on strike midway through the first game. CJ threw for roughly 20,000 TD’s, half of which were on short passes to this ridiculously quick guy named Chris who would run past 7 defenders and into the end zone before they could grab his flag.

CWA Turkey Bowl: My team won, twice. This time, I’d like to think that I had some small part in it due to my team picking skills. The best part of the whole event was Todd showing up and pulling out the hit stick on an interception pass that was 30 yards downfield at the time of “The Hit.”

My Hamstring: Still hates me. When did I turn into an injury prone old man? This sucks.

Thanksgiving Dinner: My mom decided not to make mashed potatoes this year and went with some fancy rice dish instead. If she ever decides to pull this stunt again it isn’t going to be pretty.

Thanksgiving Dinner Discussion: When asked what I was thankful for, I decided to go with the controversial “I’m thankful for our President, George Bush.” After all, the guy has served our country for the last 8 years. Despite what you may think of him, can we at least give him a little bit of respect?

This made my sister go crazy, at which point something along the lines of

“Are you serious? George Bush CAUSED 9/11. Have you not seen Fahrenheit 9/11?”

came out of her mouth. She then followed this up by saying that the Bush family gave money to foreign oil companies, which had terrorist connections, which meant that our President caused 9/11.

Apparently, she mistook the “6 Degrees to Kevin Bacon” game for the “6 Degrees to Causing 9/11” game. It’s one thing to draw connections or even state that George Bush could have done more to prevent 9/11, but to blame the President for actually causing 9/11? Get serious.

CWA Masa Reunion: Good times. At some point in the night I made the decision to walk the 1.8 miles home. Luckily, Zeyad drove by and came to my rescue by taking me the rest of the way. Sadly, he was unable to save me from the extremely painful Saturday that I went through, which was obviously caused by my hamstring injury and had nothing to do with tequila shots.

-dunkie

Warning: Potty Talk

I had a seriously awkward experience today and I find that I must share it with you. This awkward experience also brings up another issue that I have been debating whether or not to talk about, because frankly, it's kind of disgusting. If you are female, you may find some of this a little gross. Then again, I find this a little gross, so whatever. Okay, that's my disclaimer. Onto the potty talk...

If aren't aware, I work in a smallish-sized office building. It is a very nice building and about three other companies share the space with us. Along with this shared space is two private, single bathrooms. One for men, one for women.

Typically, there are a few hunting and golfing magazines sitting on top of the toilet, which I expect is standard with offices like ours. Today however, instead of golfing magazines, there were three editions of Playboy sitting on top of the toilet. WTF?

Not that I have anything against Playboy, or beautiful naked women for that matter, but who leaves Playboy magazines in restroom, at a place of business? If you want to sneak one in there, that's one thing (still pretty weird), but these were obviously left there for other people to read. One thought is that maybe someone accidentally left them there? Doubtful considering there were three of them. The second thought is that it was a joke? It isn't April fools though.

The awkward part of this is that I'm easily the youngest guy in the building. All the other men here have to be over 50... which means one of them decided to buy three Playboys and stick them in the men's room, for their, and others enjoyment. This is extremely creepy and I really am trying not to think about it more then I have too right now.

As the youngest, I hope I don't get blamed for this. I'd throw them away myself, except I really have no desire to touch them. Also, there is a small part of me that is waiting/hoping for someone else to see them and get mad about it. Hopefully, that someone won't be one of our clients.

Really now, who in their right mind would think that Playboy would be appropriate office restroom reading material? A house with a bunch of college guys? Sure. But an office? Wow. This boggles my mind. Which reminds me of the second thing I wanted to discuss...

If I were to go into a stall at a public restroom, say at a stadium, movie theater, or even a school, I'd almost expect (sadly) to see that someone had some piss poor aim (pun intended). What I don't expect, is that when going into a restroom in a small business office (where only 10 or so people that use the restroom) that I would find the same.

Again, WTF? The reason I would expect this in a public place is because there are probably a lot of 3rd graders out there who probably don't care if they lift the toilet seat. But 50 year old men? Come on now, give me a break. At the very least, feel free to clean up after yourself.

On the bright side, we are moving offices this month. Well, in actuality we are just moving to the other side of the building. Luckily, there is a separate bathroom over there and I am hopeful that these issues will not carry over.

-dunkie

Economic Ramblings

First off...

The picture to the right is of my parent’s dog, Sophie Alice Duncan, and has nothing to do with this post. I just thought I’d use it because I thought it was funny. The picture is taken at her “graduation” from obedience school.

My parents must have paid off the school to let her graduate because she has a muzzle on. To her credit, I think she is starting to calm down a bit, but that isn’t saying much given how much of a little hell hound she is/was.

Also, I’d like to apologize to the young lady that I got into an economic/political debate with about 9 months ago. Despite not knowing the definition of a recession, it turns out that she was correct when she stated that we were currently in one.

Moving on…

The other day the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announced that the United States is officially in a recession (two consecutive quarters of declining Gross Domestic Product) that dates back to December 2007. Why are they only now announcing this? Well, since the economic data used to calculate GDP is released after the fact, a recession can’t really be made official until you’ve actually been in one for 6 months.

A quick macroeconomic refresher…

GDP is “the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” It is commonly calculated using the following method:

GDP = consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports – imports)

To summarize these parts…

Consumption: Personal expenditures like food, clothing, and booze.

Investment: Investments in capital by business or households such as a house, machinery, or equipment.

Note: financial products (i.e. stocks, bonds, mortgage backed securities…) are not considered “investments” in economics; rather, they are considered “savings.”

Government Spending: Spending by the government on things like infrastructure, research, and weapons of mass destruction.

Imports/Exports: Good that we bring into the country and goods that we ship out. When we import goods we send money out of the country, meaning we decrease our GDP. When we export goods we bring money into the country, which increases our GDP.

Refreshed? Let’s continue…
GDP is down. We are in a recession. While this doesn’t necessarily mean each component of GDP is down, in this case, well… it does.

If you turn on the news you will no doubt see something about decreased spending by holiday shoppers this year. Reduced consumption? Check.

Drive around town a bit and you will probably see a fair number of “for sale” signs. Reduced investment? Got it.

Anyone see any weapons of mass destruction lying about? No? So much for Government spending.

I wonder how many American cars are being driven around in Japan/South Korea? Not a lot I’m guessing. Imports > Exports.

Okay, so maybe the whole WMD thing is a joke and I’m sure many people will argue that Government spending is actually up (see: $700 billion dollar bailout), but that money isn’t exactly going to “final goods and services” and won’t directly affect GDP.

Questions… Questions… Questions…

Q: Okay, so how does the bailout affect GDP?
A: One of the major affects of the bailout is that financial institutions are still able to operate and lend money. These loans allow people and companies to make investments, such as buy homes or business equipment. Investments by businesses hopefully assist in the growth of companies, which leads to more job opportunities. As these new jobs are created and filled and paychecks start to come in, consumption will also increase.

However, even with lending available, there are not many companies out there who are looking to expand. It isn’t exactly a great time to stick your neck out there and grow in hopes that your income will grow proportionally.

Q: So, in other words, the bailout “ain’t doin’ s***” for our GDP?
A: Not exactly. Let’s take a look at what happens to GDP if the bailout never passed. Without a bailout there is no question that many of the financial institutions out there go under and are forced to close shop. This creates unemployment. In turn, unemployment leads to lower consumption and lower investment.

For instance, let’s say the Russell Investment Group had to close shop. That’s 1,100 people in Tacoma who would be looking for jobs, which does not include other businesses in the area who would suffer from the loss of business from Russell employees. On top of that, imagine how many MORE homes in the North Tacoma area would go on the market.

Granted, Russell realistically won’t be going out of business, but there is a strong possibility that they will leave Tacoma. Why? Because a new building in Seattle just opened up as the result of WaMu shedding 3,400 employees. Speaking of which, even with the bailout, WaMu is firing 3,400 people. Luckily, these layoffs do not include layoffs to any of the WaMu branches. If the bailout never went through, you can imagine how many of those people would have lost their jobs also.

Q: Who cares? If a company fails it is probably because they suck and screwed up. Let them have what they deserve.
A: This is certainly a prevalent argument and I can certainly see the logic behind it. Why are we bailing out greedy corporate CEO’s for their mistakes? Sadly, it isn’t that simple. For every CEO out there that made bad decisions and deserve the boot, there are thousands of hard working people that will lose their jobs as a result of no one stepping in to help the situation. These hard working people have families to support and to a large degree; play a significant role in supporting our economy as a whole.

For instance, take a look at the current situation with the Big 3 Detroit auto makers (Ford, GM, and Chrysler). Right now they are asking for a combined total of $34 billion dollars to bail them out. If no one steps up to help (i.e. the Government, since there aren’t many people with $34 billion dollars lying around) they will move into bankruptcy.

It is estimated that 10% of all US employees are either directly employed by the auto industry, or work for one of their suppliers/dealers. Out of this 10%, the Big 3 employs roughly 20%, or 2% of the total US workforce. That’s about 2.5 million people. Look how bad things are with a 6% unemployment rate. Now imagine if that number jumped to 8% just because of the US auto industry.

Another report that I read estimated that the US auto industry accounts for 4% of our country’s GDP. On top of that, is the amount of consumption that the employees of the US auto industry account for. Like it or not, if the US auto industry goes under, expect this recession to go deeper and last even longer.

Note: If I was not trying to be a mature adult, I’d probably make a joke here.

Q: If they file chapter 11 bankruptcy they could still restructure and continue to operate…
A: This is true. Still, there would be a lot of layoffs. On top of this, who wants to buy a car from a company that just went into bankruptcy? I sure as hell wouldn’t. Unless there is government support, bankruptcy for the Big 3 = death.

Q: Let’s say they did disappear. Wouldn’t other car manufactures just take their place?
A: Yes, except these would most likely be foreign auto manufactures. Going back to the economic refresher, imports subtract from GDP, not add. Eventually, this could lead to additional US jobs if foreign auto makers decided to add plants in the US, however they are having enough problems of their own right now and new investments don’t seem likely.

Q: The WSJ’s headline today is “U.S. Job Losses are the Worst in 30 Years.” Your thoughts?
A: Ouch… according to the article 533,000 jobs were lost in November alone. That’s over double the population of Tacoma, and roughly the same number of people who live in the city of Seattle. Something needs to happen. And soon.

Q: What needs to happen? How do we get out of this recession?
A: The typical answers are to increase government spending (to make up for lower investment spending) or to enact monetary policy and lower interest rates as to encourage more investment spending. Here is the problem as I see it.

The country is already running a huge deficit. Recession = less tax revenue, which makes this deficit even larger. Throw on the war in Iraq and the bailout and we aren’t looking at a whole lot left (Of note, is that in the report by the WSJ today, the government was just about the only sector that added jobs recently).

As for monetary policy and interest rates, they are already extremely low and lowering them further probably won’t do much. So far, monetary policy, combined with the bailout, has only been able to do just enough to keep lending options open. Even with these options open, the outlook for our economy is so bleak that people are avoiding borrowing money like the plague (unless they already have the plague, in which case they are trying to borrow as much money as possible, except who wants to lend to people with the plague?).

Borrowing money is only really smart when you have a form of repayment that is certain. Many businesses have no idea what their revenues will be like in the future so they make the smart decision to avoid borrowing. On the other hand, borrowing money if you are about to go under isn’t such a bad idea, after all, what do you have to lose? Lending to someone like that however, is what put us here in the first place.

Q: Hold up. Are you saying that the government lending to the Big 3 auto makers is a bad idea? Flip-flop much?
A: It may sound like that, but in truth, none of the available options are really ideal. Looking at the Big 3 and their situation is getting back to this whole idea of “too big to fail.” Honestly, I don’t have all the information on what the proposals are for the Big 3. I’m just hopeful that if they are viable plans that have a good chance to succeed, that politics won’t get in the way of making them happen. If it’s the case that it is only delaying the inevitable, then I guess we might as well not delay it…

Q: Back to the “How do we get out of this” question…
A: Recap: Government spending and monetary policy, probably not going to work to well right now.

So what then? Well, another option (which we saw last year) is to give tax-rebates. In theory, this will encourage people to spend and consume more, thus stimulating the economy. This sounds great and all, and I’m definitely for receiving a $600 check in the mail, except my feeling are that most of this money wouldn’t go towards increasing consumption.

People who are struggling will most likely either save the money or put it towards paying down bills that are already past due. Neither of which, will increase consumption. At the same time, giving a tax-rebate might only hinder government spending even more.

What it comes down to (yet again) is this silly little thing called confidence. Companies won’t invest until they are confident of growth. The government won’t be handing out money until they are confident that it will help. People won’t spend until they are confident that they are confident that they will have a paycheck coming in the next week. Take away any once piece of this and it will cause a ripple effect.

No government help to the US auto makers? That will lead to people not being confident about their jobs, which will reduce their spending. This leads to companies that depend on those consumers to slow their growth and investments.

People not being confident that they will have their jobs next month? Again, this leads to reduced spending and slower growth of companies. Think a bailout will help the Big 3 if no one buys their cars? Probably not.

Companies unwilling to invest in order to grow? Unemployment will remain high. Make no mistake, we are in a mess here. Somewhere we need to find a little bit of confidence and eventually we might be able to grow on it and dig ourselves out of this hole. I think the hope is that our new President Elect, Barack Obama, will help bring this confidence.

Q: Let’s say you had $34 billion dollars lying around. What would you do?
A: The two options I see are save it, or spend it. When I say save it, I’m using the economic definition of save, i.e. invest it.

As the saying goes, “buy low, sell high.” Invest that cash and watch that money roll in… right? Not so fast. Here is the problem with that. Let’s say everyone does this. Instead of spending their money they just invest it all hoping to make a quick buck. Well, the companies that they invest in will see lower consumption as a result of everyone “saving” and that will lead to many not-so-great investments.

On the other, spending $34 billion dollars sounds pretty fun. I’m sure I could buy a lot of pretty sweet things with that amount of money, and at the same time I’d be helping the economy out by increasing consumption and investments. Great idea, except I’d much rather see my money grow, than diminish.

Ideally, everyone out there would spend half the money they have, and invest the other half. That way everyone would help and everyone would benefit. Obviously, this isn’t going to happen, nor am I actually suggesting that it should happen.

What I am suggesting is that everyone should spend their money and I should invest the $34 billion dollars that I don’t have and becoming a trillionaire. Obviously, I’d give some money back to all the chumps out there for helping make me rich.

Q: Seriously?
A: Seriously, I don’t know what the hell I’d do with $34 billion dollars. Maybe I’d buy up a large amount of land somewhere and try and make my own little utopia. Obviously, you all would be invited.

To be quite honest, I don’t even know what makes sense for bringing us out of this recession right now. As you can probably tell this entire blog, all I have is a bundle of thoughts about how things aren’t working like they should, but at the same time knowing that something needs to happen.

In all my ramblings I guess my best answer to these economic issues is confidence. Hopefully, that’s something Barack Obama will instill when he comes into office. At least, that’s why I voted for him…

p.s. Usually I try to do a through job of proof reading my blogs before I post them. This one was just to long and jumbled up that I decided to not put anymore time into it. My apologies.

-dunkie

Ronald Jenkees: Musical Genius

Here you go Hoops. I've been working on an economic blog lately, but I haven't had the time to finish it up so this will have to keep you entertained until then...

If you read Bill Simmons (The Sports Guy) articles on ESPN, or listen to his podcasts, then you probably know who this is. If not, the guys name is Ronald Jenkees. His music is amazingly ridiculous. I usually don't buy CD's, but after watching a bunch of his YouTube videos I decided to bite the bullet to support the guy. Enjoy!

If you like what you see here you can find many more videos of him playing on YouTube. Just search "Ronald Jenkees" or follow the link to them here. Also, if you would like to support him his music is available on iTunes and his website. Word on the street is that he has a new album dropping this month...

"It's got a real dirty sound. Like a rusty steak knife, cutting through a well aged steak." -Ronald Jenkees

While I'm at it I might as well toss in a few music related side notes...

The first is that when I was put on hold today the song playing on the other end of the phone was a remake of the Cyndi Lauper song, Time after Time. Apparently some Disney star sings it. Fitting, I guess...

My second side-note is that two of my friends are playing their first gig down in Portland later this month. I had the pleasure of listening to them practice a while back and I'm stoked to see what they have come up with since then. Hopefully, that will include a name for their band...

-dunkie